The Patriots look like Muhammad Ali to me right now.  They rope-a-dope their opponents, expending just enough energy to win.  There is no other explanation for how they have played against Jacksonville and San Diego.  The Patriots have just taken what they have been given, not forcing anything downfield, playing bend-don't-break defense and making stops in the red zone.  They don't look anything like the team that stormed through the regular season's first 12 weeks.  What happened to using Randy Moss as the weapon he is?  Since when does double coverage stop Moss from outleaping both guys for big plays?  Brady and Belichick have just decided to play it safe and do exactly what it takes to win and no more.  Part of this is probably due to the weather, and part of it is due to the opponent surely, but most of it I think is just boredom with the domination.  I think they are just playing with the NFL like a cat plays with a ball of yarn.  The Giants better watch out, I think the Patriots have been coiling up like a snake, waiting for the perfect field and perfect weather in Arizona to spring their best performance on the unsuspecting, over-confident NFC sacrifice. 

So to the Giants win over the Packers.  I talked about the possibility of Favre reverting to "gunslinger" Farve when I looked at the Seahawks matchup going into the divisional round.  Due to the wacky nature of the game and the success they had running the ball, Favre was able to keep it under control against Seattle and dominated the game.  Against New York it was a different story.  I don't know who was calling the plays or if Favre was audibling at all, but to run the ball only 14 times all game, 6 times in the second half of a close game is CRAZY!  With sub zero temperatures, an opponent who had given up over 150 yards on the ground to the Cowboys, why didn't the Packers lean on their 200 yard back more often?  It was just a matter of time, if you ask Favre to throw 40+ times in a close game like that before he takes one chance too many.  He threw two interceptions, the last one the killer in overtime, but he could have had at least 3 more that I counted where defenders missed catching the ball when Favre tried to fit it into tight coverage.  The Giants on the other hand, ran the ball over 30 times, even when they weren't having great success and left Eli in manageable down and distance for his third down conversions.  Combine that with the huge mismatch the Burress created while being covered man to man by Al Harris and the Giants made plays when they had to.  This game could have been a blowout for New York if the Giants didn't stall a few times in Packer territory and if Driver doesn't have a 90 yard TD catch.  I put this loss for Green Bay 100% on McCarthy and Favre, they had a terrible plan for this game and wasted home field advantage.  Now we have to endure two weeks of Manning coverage, like we don't see enough of the Manning family on TV.  I am now ready for baseball season! 

I am still trying to figure out what happened last weekend.  Between the blizzard in Green Bay, to the Sunday upsets, it was a weird Divisional Round.  I can't quite figure out how the Giants won that game.  Other than the 11 penalties and a punt return into Dallas territory, everything else in that game was in the Cowboys favor.  Yards, time of possession, sacks, and a lack of turnovers to help New York.  And before that on Sunday the Colts couldn't stop the B team offense for San Diego.  Put that together with 3 typical Indy turnovers and you have a recipe for an upset. Weird stuff.

Divisional prediction recap.  I was pretty dang close to perfect on Saturday.  I saw the Seahawks defensive collapse coming (maybe not to that degree) and my predicted score of 31-17 was 14 total points off the final of 42-20.  In the New England game, I was even closer predicting a 33-17 victory for New England and it ended at 31-20, 5 total points off.  Sunday was another story.  I had Indy and Dallas each winning by double digits but at least I documented the possible ways the underdogs could win and they were partially correct.  I knew TO would not be effective, I knew Dallas couldn't move the ball without him and I knew the Giants wouldn't have much offense.  But they had just enough to win with the aid of 84 penalty yards against Dallas.  I said that the only chance for San Diego was if Merriman and company put it to Manning and they did when it counted, the Colts only converted 4 times on third down and had the 3 turnovers.  Lesson learned, the benefit of the doubt doesn't always go with the home teams even when the historical numbers suggest otherwise.

Here goes the conference championship predictions... 

New England vs San Diego
This game is interesting simply because of a few factors that are different from the playoff game these two teams played last year in San Diego.  First, New England has completely revamped their receiving core.  I am watching the replay of the game last year and Brady is throwing to Caldwell, Brown, Watson, Graham and Faulk.  This year he gets to look at Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney and Watson.  HUGE upgrade, but this has been well documented.  If the Chargers play as much man to man as they did last year, this year's version of the Patriots will definitely hurt them.  Second, is the weather.  It is supposed to be in the teens on Sunday which should actually help the Chargers keep the game closer than if the weather was warm and perfect for the passing game.  The Chargers have the better running game and their defense led the league in forced turnovers so if this is not a complete track meet, they can keep it relatively competetive and give themselves a chance to win.  Remember, the Chargers were winning by 8 with less than 5 minutes left in last year's game and gave it away.  Third and probably most important is the health of Rivers, Gates and Tomlinson.  If any of them is less than 90% it will seriously limit the offense's ability to keep up with New England.  I don't think any of them will be close to full strength, Gates is the worst off, Tomlinson had a scary looking "hyperextension" of his knee and Rivers wasn't able to come back last week in a do or die game.  None of this bodes well for them being ready for this week.  I am sure they will try to go, but I don't think they will all finish the game. 

Prediction = New England 27 San Diego 10

Green Bay vs New York
This game will be another example of why there needs to be a super bowl in cold weather cities.  Is there a better place to have a super bowl than Green Bay?  The frozen tundra?  Lambeau Field?  A game with a temperature in the single digits?  It is going to be awesome!  I will be able to enjoy it much more this week now that the emotions of watching Seattle is gone.  In looking at this game, I don't really see any indications that the Giants have what it takes to win.  They got lucky in Dallas, played an underprepared team in Tampa Bay and now have to play their third straight road game against a higher seeded team.  Eli has been efficient, but nothing special, not throwing for more than 185 yards in either playoff game.  The running game has not been as effective as it had been coming into the playoffs.  And Plaxico Burress is running around with an ankle that looks like it is being held together with bailing wire.  The Giants have a solid front 7 on defense and can put pressure on quarterbacks, but they only had 2 sacks last week and Favre has been getting rid of the ball so quickly that Seattle only touched him twice last week.  Not sacked, not pressured, not hit, just touched him two times.  Green Bay wins this game easily and Favre gets another shot at the super bowl.  

Prediction = Green Bay 21 New York 7 

1:28 - Just a few minutes until kickoff.  Snow is coming down, beautiful scene for football.  Lambeau Field is the #1 place to enjoy a football game.  I love the end zones with only the diagonal lines and no team logos or other crap on them.  Should be fun to watch Favre today, along with all the connections between Holmgren and Hasselbeck coming back to Green Bay. 

1:33 - Coin flip - tails never fails.. .and it fails Favre gets first crack.

1:35 - Field looks slippery, not sure who that favors since they both run the same offense.  Like I said in my prediction, Seattle needs to be able to run the ball today. 

1:38 - Holy CRAP, first play Ryan Grant catches a swing pass, bobbles it, secures it, gets nailed and coughs it up!  Seattle recovers and returns it to the 1.  Next play Shawn Alexander goes over for the TD. Seattle 7-0!!!!!!

1:42 - Packers give the ball right back to Grant, runs for 8 off the left side.  Very smart to get the ball right back to the player who made the early mistake.  But wait!  Grant just fumbled again! Seattle ball!!!

1:44 - Seattle comes out and throws the ball on the first two offensive plays which makes me nervous.  The conditions are worse than was was forecasted, looks cold and slippery, run the ball please.

1:50 - Hasselbeck moves Seattle quickly down the field and just threw a TD pass to Bobby Engram.  Looked like he got pushed out before his second foot came down.  Ruled a force out, so catch stands and Seattle is up 14-0, what is going on here?  I am in shock, not sure how excited to get.  (Bad news though, Deion Branch is out for the rest of the game, hurt his calf on the next to last play on the drive.)

1:57 - Packer has 3rd and 7, Seattle blitzes 6 guys and the Green Bay line stones them.  Big gain for James Jones down to the Seattle 20.  I don't have any stats to back this up, but it seems like Seattle struggles to get pressure when they blitz, it seems like they don't get there often enough when they commit that many rushers.  Dangerous against Favre to blitz and not get to him. 
Two more plays result in a Green Bay TD pass to Greg Jennings. Seattle 14 Green Bay 7.

2:04 - Snow is really accumulating now, what a great sight, football in the snow in January.  Seattle keeps throwing the ball dammit, run it!  3 and out.  Momentum has swung fully back to Green Bay. 

2:10 - Favre just about proved my point about relying solely on the pass in this weather.  He led James Jones just a little too far, ball deflected in the air and Jordan Babineaux had a chance at the interception but couldn't hang on.  I figure we will see this quite a few more times today if both teams insist on throwing every down.

2:13 - I HATE REPLAY!  This stinks, Green Bay is challenging the spot of the ball after a catch by Bubba Franks.  For crying out loud, the spot is the most arbitrary thing referres do, it is hardly ever exact, but that is part of the human element of the game.  What is next, they overlay some kind of infared laser array over the field and the entire game can be judged by a computer???

2:21 - Green Bay just figured out how to win today, 5 straight runs by Ryan Grant result in TD #2 for the Packers.  Score is tied up.  Will Seattle wake up before Green Bay runs away with this?

2:36 - Seattle turns the ball over on a Marcus Pollard fumble, Green Bay immediately scores to go ahead and the rout is on.  The Packers have outgained Seattle 150 to 2 since the second Seattle TD.  Hasselbeck just fumbled a snap on third and one, this is going to get ugly.

2:38 - Seattle was just the beneficiary of a roughing the punter penalty, that almost never happens, I will take it.

2:41 - The Seahawks could seriuosly use a tight end, Marcus Pollard sucks.

2:44 - No wonder Seattle doesn't run more often.  On second and 6, they run a counter and Sean Locklear the right tackle pulls into the hole and runs right by the man he should have blocked leading to a loss of one.  Then on third down, dropped pass by DJ Hackett.  Seattle needs to play perfect the rest of the way to have a chance, these mistakes are not helping. 

2:45 - I love it when offensive linemen get beat and you get to see them turned around watching the running back or quarterback getting tackled in the backfield, that is great.  We have two of the best at this in Rob Sims and Sean Locklear.  We get to see the front of their jersey on TV far too often.

2:51 - Absolutely 0 pressure on Favre, I said in the prediction that the Seahawk D cannot get pressure on the road and it is coming true.  Favre has been totally clean so far.  His white sleeves are still white.

3:01 - Other than the first two times Green Bay had the ball and Ryan Grant fumbled, Seattle has not slowed down Favre and the Packers at all.  4 possessions since the last fumble, 4 touchdowns.  They finally put their hands on Favre but he escaped and made a sensational flip pass to Donald Lee on 3rd and 9 from the Seahawk 15.  I predicted a 31-17 score, but it is already 28-17.  BLOWOUT ALERT!

3:18 - Why don't TV announcers ever use relevant stats to explain what is happening?  They are talking about the Seahawks lack of a pass rush like it is a surprise, but the entire year they failed to generate the same pressure on the road that they do at home.  Why do announcers ignore things like this?

3:21 - Seattle comes out with three passes, and of course the fail to get a first down and now punt it right back to Green Bay.  Why don't they use Alexander?  He is their only hope.  Just like Luke Skywalker.

3:28 - Packer TD, 35-17. Blog over.  If Seattle closes the gap, I will be back. 

I said yesterday that Terrell Owens will be a big factor in this game.  He has the ability to dictate how teams play defense because it is so dangerous to blitz Dallas and give him single coverage.  In the last meeting the game was very even if you set aside the big plays made by Romo and Owens.  Obviously you can't just set aside a few plays when analyzing a game, but it begs the question, if Owens is limited at all, will those plays be there for Dallas?  And if not, can the Giants keep this game close and ride the running game in the second half to a victory? 

Take those questions one at a time, is Owens going to be limited?  Professional athletes have the highest level of physical care for their bodies and they can do things to return from injuries that normal people cannot.  But when you look at the history with this specific injury (high ankle sprain), NFL players typically take 4-6 weeks to be effective again.  Owens will be 3 weeks removed from his at kickoff on Sunday.  I seriously doubt that he will be able to do the things he typically can do with his ankle keeping him from being 100%.  This fact may allow New York to blitz Romo a little more and not get burned by Owens down the field.  They can also focus more attention on Jason Witten who went off in both games with New York this year.  Advantage New York. 

Second question, if Owens is limited, can Dallas sustain offense?  Can Dallas rely on Romo to take what New York gives him consistently and also allow Barber and Jones to do thier thing on the ground?  In the second game between these teams in week 10, the Cowboys only ran for 82 yards and Owens had more than half of Romo's 247 yards passing.  This game was in New York, which has to be taken into account, but the fact remains that Dallas did not have much offense without TO. 

So then to question three, if these two things hold true, can New York keep the game close, keep running the ball and limit the exposure Eli will have to the blitz?  In the playoffs, it is hard not to feel like the teams that are coming off a win have momentum behind them going into the second round.  Quite a few people are saying that Eli has looked great the last two weeks and maybe he is finally turning the corner.  I just don't buy it.  In the second half against New England, once Belichick decided to blitz Eli on just about every passing down, Eli reverted to his old habits (throwing off the back foot, ducking the rush) and threw the interception that cost them the game.  Then against Tampa Bay, for some reason the Bucs decided not to blitz barely at all and Eli had an easier time finding the soft spots in the zone defense, still only throwing for 185 yards.  I see the Cowboys winning this game with defense, loading up on Brandon Jacobs and blitzing Manning to create some turnovers. 

Key player that could swing this outcome is Plaxico Burress.  I thought he could make a difference against Tampa Bay last week in the red zone, but the Giants didn't need him.  The thing about Eli and Plaxico, is that Burress can help make up for Eli's mistakes.  Eli can throw it up against the blitz and even if the ball is fluttering or short of the intended target, Burress can outjump Anthony Henry and Terrance Newman.  If Burress catches a couple of long balls or jump balls in the red zone, it could boost the Giants over the top.  In the first game against Dallas, Burress had 3 td's in a 45-35 loss, but in the second game he was held to 24 yards and 0 td's.  If Burress can score, so can the Giants.

Prediction = Dallas 20 New York 10

Holding off one more day to make this prediction to get more information on health of Owens and Glenn.  Owens is too much of a factor to make a prediction without this information. 

In looking at this week's games, I saw a stat that is pretty telling.  Home teams in the divisional round are 53-15 since 1990.  Between the bye week and playing at home, this is obviously a tremendous advantage.  I only say this because I chose both home teams yesterday and Indy will make it 3 for 3.  It is very boring to pick favorite after favorite, but there is a reason these teams had a bye and are playing at home, they had great seasons and they are pretty good. 

In the regular season matchup between these two teams, Indianapolis was coming off of the huge game against New England in which they lost a 10 point second half lead.  It was obvious early on that the Colts still had a hangover from that game.  The Chargers took two kicks back for TD's, Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions in the game and even with all that, Indy had the game there for the winning had Adam Vinatieri been able to make a short field goal.  He missed and the Chargers had a victory in this game. 

But, here is the thing, even though Indianapolis lost, they have to feel confident against this team.  In week 10, the Colts outgained the Chargers 386 to 177.  They had 25 first downs to the Chargers 11.  They converted 10 third downs to the Chargers 3.  And they led time of possession 36 to 24.  When you look at these stats, it is obvious that the Chargers could not move the ball on Indy, even at home, with the Colts coming off a tough game the week prior.  In this week's playoff game, I don't see how that gets any better for San Diego.  Indy comes in fresh, with the defensive player of the year, Bob Sanders setting his sites clearly on Ladanian Tomlinson.  I think this matchup is key to San Diego being able to move the ball.  Sanders should spend most of his time on the early downs dropping into the box and flying around the field trying to keep LT from getting any breathing room.  On top of this, Antonio Gates, if he even plays, will be limited and he has not really been a big factor in the San Diego game plans anyway.  As a Gates owner this year, I was dumbfounded when they would go games without getting him involved.  He is a walking mismatch for linebackers and safeties, yet he had multiple games in the second half of the season where he failed to catch a single pass.  Take both of these facts and add in that the key decision makers for the Chargers are Norv Turner and Philip Rivers and I don't see how you can come up with any result for this game other than and Indianapolis victory.  I didn't even have to mention the strength of the Peyton Manning led offense in making this prediction.  

Key player that could swing this result is Shawne Merriman.  The only way that Indy loses this game is either Manning gets hurt or they turn the ball over 5 or 6 times again.  Merriman is the one guy who could make both of these things happen.  The Colts get sacked fewer times than any team in the league, so if Merriman can overcome this stat and put pressure on Manning and force turnovers, the Chargers have a chance.  If he gets stoned like he did against Maurice Jones-Drew and the Chargers are done.  Look forward to the Norv Turner face...

Prediction =  Indianapolis 28 San Diego 13

OK, if you have read anything on this site you know that I am a Seattle fan.  Hard to look at this objectively, but I think I have broken it down to the key element that will decide this game.  And that is.....

Seattle's defense, while great at home, has been downright awful on the road!  They are like the Colorado Rockies, their home/road splits are brutal.  The Seahawks had twice as many sacks at home compared to on the road and they had 3 times as many quarterback hits at home as well.  This does not bode well for the Seahawk pass rush.  The thing that Brett Favre has done better this year than maybe ever is throw the check down pass underneath the coverage.  So put these two things together, the Hawks weakened pass rush (no crowd noise to affect the offensive line), along with a patient Favre who knows how to get rid of the ball, and it is possible that Seattle may not touch the Green Bay quarterback at all.  Seattle lost 6 games this year, and only one of those was at home.  5 losses on the road, at Arizona, at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Carolina and at Atlanta (probably doesn't count much, last game of the season).  In these games, other than Caorlina (starting a rookie QB) the Seahawks never allowed fewer than 21 points and in all games never allowed fewer than 322 total yards (twice allowing over 425). 

So the question then moves to the probablility that Seattle can either hold Green Bay under these levels or score more themselves.  Between the pass rush statistics and the road history this year it is unlikely that Seattle is going to hold Green Bay under 21 points, the odds of that are probably 10% or so.  So let's focus on the Seahawk offense to determine if they can get to 30 points which is probably what it will take to win.

Against most teams, Seattle's west coast offense appears rather unique.  Lots of slants, curls, pivot routes, not too much down the field.  This allows Hasselbeck to pick on nickel backs and linebackers that are unprepared to defend the pass on early downs.  The downside here is that Green Bay's defense sees this every day and it is run by the master himself in Favre.  The Green Bay receivers led the league in yards after catch this year which is the trademark of the west coast scheme.  So I don't see the Hawk passing game getting anything easy.  Add to that the quality of the cornerbacks for Green Bay, Al Harris and Charles Woodson and it may be hard for Seattle to sustain offense just spreading it out and throwing all the time which is how they have had success the second half of the season.  I fully believe the Seahawks only chance to move the ball consistently and put points on the board is going to be Shawn Alexander, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver and the offensive line being able to control the game with the running attack.  This is not the Seahawks strong suit obviously, people have been bagging on Alexander all year, calling him soft, weak, too easy to tackle, crap in the passing game, and for the most part this has been true.  But it really doesn't matter.  Alexander is as healthy as he has been this year and with the workload share they have going on with the other two backs, Seattle must rely on the ground game to win.  Alexander has to get close to 20 carries and do something with them if the Hawks are going to score the 30 points they probably need.  But in the end will it be enough?

The person that could swing this game the other way is actually Brett Favre himself.  I think if Favre controls himself and stays conservative, doesn't try to force throws and continues to check the ball down and let his playmakers run with it, then Seattle will have a hard time stopping the Packers.  But if Favre gets jacked up for this playoff game, maybe his last in Lambeau, and starts his gunslinging routine, Seattle's improved defensive backfield my have a chance to pick off a few passes and possibly bring them back to the house.  Defensive scores or bunches of turnovers from Fave could give Seattle a victory.

Prediction = Green Bay 31 Seattle 17

New England vs Jacksonville - I know everyone has called Jacksonville "the team nobody wants to play", but I have looked at it pretty closely and I don't think the Patriots care one bit.  The Patriots probably see three things that set them at ease:

First, David Garrard looked very shaky in his first playoff game and if he is forced to throw at all or Jacksonville is down by 10 points in the second half, the Patriots will force a few turnovers and put the game away.  The Jaguars don't really have any "separation" wide receivers, they are all big guys who are good targets for certain routes, but Garrard has to be very accurate to put the ball in spots where only they can catch it.  If he had one or two guys that could create some quick separation that may give him some easier throws, but the only guy I see that can do that is Maurice Jones-Drew and they don't use him enough in the passing game.  This means that Jacksonville must run the ball probably 30 times or so to make the play action effective to have a chance, and I am sure New England has been hearing enough about how tough the Jaguar running game is and they will be ready for it.  No doubt, Belichick will force David Garrard to beat him dropping back and throwing it around and I don't think he can do it.     

Second, Jacksonville is vulnerable against the pass, period.  When you look at their games against Indianapolis, who probably has the most comparable offense to New England, you see Peyton Manning guiding the Colts to 29 and 28 points, throwing 5 td's and 2 picks, completing about 2/3 of his passes.  New Orleans has a great passing game and put up 445 yards through the air against Jacksonville.   Last week against Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger threw for 337 yards, albeit he had to throw a ton to try to come back.  But even in the first half of that game Hines Ward had 3 or 4 big catches and the steelers were moving the ball and if not for Roethlisberger throwing two bonehead interceptions the game may have been going a little different early.  The point is, that Jacksonville, on the road, against a top passing team can be beat through the air.  Obviously Brady, Moss, Welker, Watson, Stallworth, Gaffney et all have had a record breaking year and I would not be surprised at all if they come out in 5 wide receivers and throw every play the first couple of drives out of the no huddle.  Take away the Jaguars strength in the middle and get some momentum early with a few big pass plays and hopefully get up 10 or 14 early.

The third thing is the injuries to Marcus Stroud and John Henderson.  Going into the season, you could point to this duo as possibly the best defeinsive tackle combo in the game.  The physical style of play Jack Del Rio prefers, starts up front on the offensive and defensive lines.  Without these two (Stroud is out, Henderson is likely to be very limited if not out), the Jags are missing the key pieces that give them the toughness they are known for.  New England doesn't run the ball much, but they are probably glad that they won't have to deal with these two guys when they try to gash the Jags with a few Maroney runs.  Could be big in the red zone too if New England needs some short yardage.

The one player who would turn this result is Fred Taylor.  He has had a great final quarter of the season and he has done it by breaking big runs.  I don't see the Jags sustaining a consistent running game, but if they can keep the score close they don't have to completely abandon the running game.  This is where Taylor could come up huge.  If he breaks a long touchdown run early, it could give the Jags the confidence to keep handing it off even if they get stuffed a few times.  And a long TD may be the best way to score against the Pats, will be hard to work the ball methodically down the field on them. 

Final prediction = New England 33 Jacksonville 17

Couple quick things:

Does anyone out there have a good link to recordings of NFL football games from the "coaching" angle?  This is the wide view where you can see the entire field and look at what the wide receivers and defensive backs are doing that you cannot see on the televised view.  I don't know about anyone else, but it drives me nuts when it is obvious that the quarterback is calling an audible and I cannot see everything that he sees causing him to change the play. 

I will do complete game previews on Thursday for the Saturday games and on Friday for the Sunday games.

Playoff fantasy football, it has become the great example I brought up in my article about fantasy bowl vs super bowl.  I have entered into a playoff fantasy league where you have a $200 salary cap and can pick any player from any team in the playoffs each round.  So there are a few layers of complexity to it.  You have to decide who you think will perform, you have to balance the salaries and you have to understand that other teams can pick the exact same players that you do so finding a lesser player who will outperform the stars can be key.  I have added a layer of complexity that is really not needed, but I can't help it.  In an attempt to not "jinx" the Seahawks, I am avoiding any of my home town players.  So even though I liked Hasselbeck, Hackett and the defense, I did not dare put them in my lineup.  Hackett specifically was a key guy I would have liked to play because he was under the radar and had a low salary cap figure.  Not to mention the Hawk defense had two interceptions returned for touchdowns.  Then on the flip side, I add a "hedge" play to my roster.  This is a practice where I purposely use a key player who plays for the team facing Seattle to "hedge" my bet.  This week I chose Clinton Portis.  In my game preview I mentioned that Seattle is very good against the run at home and it would be key to their victory.  So to "hedge" this possibility, I use Portis on my fantasy team and if he breaks this prediction and runs wild, at least I get some points out of it.  But I am really hoping he gets stuffed and Seattle can control the game.  In the end, it worked out for Seattle more than it worked out for my fantasy team, which is really what I prefer anyway.  I know this is probably a useless complication that I don't need to worry about, but it sure makes me feel better about the game while I am watching it.

Quick thoughts on Tampa/New York and San Diego/Tennessee.  I had both of these games figured correctly, but New York and San Diego got it done a little differently than I thought they would.  After the 1st quarter in which the Giants had -2 total yards on three consecutive three and outs, I knew that they would come back.  For road teams in the playoffs, a big key is hanging on at the beginning of games while the home team gets the positive energy out.  This happened in three of the four games, with Tennesee being the only road team to jump out to a lead.  For New York, I thought Plaxico Burress would be a big factor, but Eli Manning found that he could be pretty efficient concentrating on throws over the middle to Toomer and Smith.  Bradshaw was also the bigger factor in the running game with 66 quality yards.  Boy is he quick to the line of scrimmage.  As a defender, I would much rather try to tackle him than Brandon Jacobs, but when you can get two or more defenders to the area, Jacobs has a harder time getting his momentum going forward.  Going into the game, I wondered which QB would fare better, the erratic Eli or the worn down Garcia, and we got our answer.  Eli was great for the second consecutive week and this time he didn't throw the key interception that Tampa needed to get back into the game.  The Giants have to be confident with their 8-1 road record going to Dallas who struggled down the stretch. 

For the Chargers, they have to be majorly concerned about their running game.  It is highly unlikely that the Colts will have the kind of coverage breakdowns that Tennessee had that allowed 6 completions of over 20 yards for Philip Rivers.  He is going to have to work the ball underneath the coverage and use the running game to get Bob Sanders to plant himself in the box, then they may have a chance to go up top to Chambers or Jackson.  If LT cannot get going early, the Chargers are going to fall behind and may not be able to catch up.  I thought that the Chargers would play better offensively at home, but you have to give it to the Titans, with Albert Haynesworth, they are a different defense.  Lendale White was the factor that I thought he would be if the Titans were to have a chance, as he had a great first half rushing for 60 yards.  But the Chargers made the right adjustments and held him to 9 yards in the second half.  Vince Young seriously needs some quality BIG targets since his accuracy is never going to be top notch.  He needs guys like Burress/Moss/Owens who can make plays when you don't put it on the numbers.  One more year though and the Titans will be scary. 

The games on Sunday definitely failed to live up to the excitement of Saturday, but we are set up for some great matchups this weekend.  Of course Seattle gets the worst time slot again, playing the first game on Saturday, but oh well, it should be a fun game to watch with all the sub plots.  As a Seahawk fan I am hoping for the "gunslinger" Brett Favre who will take chances and throw 3 picks.  But I honestly think he knows this may be his last best chance at a super bowl and will play it pretty conservatively.  Full previews later this week. 

I predicted that this game would be a Jacksonville victory, but I thought it would be much easier for them.  And for most of the game it was.  The score during the 3rd quarter went up to 28-10 after the second touchdown by Maurice Jones-Drew.  The Steelers then started a great comeback.  But this was not really due to anything special that they did themselves.  Most playoff games can be decided because one team fails to do something that got them to the playoffs in the first place.  This morning Washington couldn't run the ball, so they had a hard time continuing the success they had at the end of the season.  Jacksonville, and David Garrard specifically, were successful this year by taking care of the football and not giving the opponents easy scores.  The Steelers were able to comeback almost solely because David Garrard threw two costly interceptions that turned into scores for Pittsburgh.  Once they went up 18, I was mystified why they didn't run the ball on every play they had the ball.  Both the passes that Garrard threw for interceptions were on early down and distance and both were terrible reads that had no business being thrown.  Without these two plays, Pittsburgh likely doesn't have the time to move the ball the length of the field three times to come back.  Coming into the playoffs, Garrard had almost set a record for fewest interceptions per pass attempt, at one interception per 105 attempts (3 total int's for the year).  So this breakdown in the second half of a playoff game that he was leading is very surprising.  But that is what happens in the playoffs.  Nerves and decision making become clouded and that is why playoff experience is so important.  Roethlisberger in particular looked more comfortable than his counterpart as the game went on in the second half.  New England has to be cheering for Tennessee so that they can avoid this Jacksonville team.  I doubt that Garrard will make these same mistakes next week and Jacksonville will probably do a better job staying patient with the running game.  That would be a great matchup for the divisional playoff round.

Start time - 1:30PM
Just wrapped up the pregame wondering where Chris Collinsworth is.  Now I have my answer, he is calling the Seahawk game with Tom Hammond.  Typically NBC only has one game a week, so it is always Madden and Micheals behind the mike.  I wondered who the second announcing team would be with NBC having both Saturday games today.  Great surprise to have Collinsworth as the color guy. 

1:32 - They just showed the top of Matt Hasselbeck's head, and it brought up the question, how many QB's have made the superbowl being bald?  And I mean bald, bald, not shaved bald. 

1:37 - Three and out first possession for Washington. Great tackle by Rocky Bernard on second down run by Portis.  Collins way wild high on third down.  Hope his first playoff game is a crappy one. 

1:40 - Hasselbeck starts out hot, completes two passes, one to Burleson and one to Engram.  Seahawks in Washington territory.  Great pass to Engram, perfect accuracy across the middle in man coverage.

1:44 - Initial third down for Seattle produces a wild throw from Hasselbeck, defender fell down and Obamanu was wide open.  Hard to tell if man fell before Matt could identify how open the receiver was, he didn't need to throw it so hard.

1:50 - Great stop on third down, Kerney makes the tackle, but Tapp is the one who got the initial penetration to redirect Clinton Portis.  Time to punt.

1:55 - On the punt return, the umpire was injured, looked like he got caught in the wash near the sideline, could be a knee.  What do refs do when one goes down?  Do they move around?  Which position is now not filled?  Back judge?  Or do they have an extra guy waiting to come in like a relief pitcher? 

2:00 - Alexander breaks a long run, but fumbles at the end, Fred Smoot recovered for Washington.  BUT NO, clearly he was down before the ball started to come out.  This is one of those instances where the refs let the play go because they know that replay can fix it if they get it wrong.  I can't stand replay and what it has done to how refs call the games.

2:03 - PERFECT!!!  Leonard Weaver takes the ball for a score on a draw play.  This is great on every level.  I didn't play any Seahawks this week in the playoff fantasy league in fear of jinxing them, so by having Weaver score, the hawks get the lead and I seriously doubt any of my opponents played Weaver over all the other running backs to choose from.   

2:17 - Interesting decision just now.  Holmgren had to choose between 4th and 1 or take the punt down at the 2 yard line, good call I think.  Crowd is going nuts.  Redskins are backed up against their own goal line.  And Seattle helps them out with a penalty, crum.

2:20 - End of the First Quarter, score Seattle 7 Washington 0.  Good quarter for Seattle, I am hoping they can keep it up.  Collins looks shaky, Portis has 7 yards rushing, Hasselbeck looks like he is comfortable and the Seattle running game is even working.  And the 12th man is sounding loud and strong!

2:27 - The refs just screwed the Seahawks by reversing a call on the field calling a fumble by Todd Collins and incomplete pass which is not reviewable.  Then on third and long, the Seahawks gave up a third and long completion just like I mentioned in my game prediction.  Dang it!

2:37 - Seahawks get the ball back, move quickly down to the Washington 32 and have a third and two to go.  In this position, I would call a run play, thinking that if you don't get the whole two yards the first time, you could call a second run play on fourth down to give yourself two cracks to get two yards.  At the 32 yard line, it is a 50 yard field goal, which in the wind and rain is risky.  Instead, Seattle calls a swing pass to Morris which is incomplete.  In comes the field goal unit and Josh Brown saves Holmgren from ridicule by nailing the long field goal.  Score is 10 to zip now, sweet.

2:50 - I always get mad with Holmgren when he calls a draw play on third and 7 on an opponents side of the 50.  On third and long from their own 10, I really like the draw play, and what does Seattle do?  Try to throw the ball downfield and Hasselbeck gets sacked and fumbles.  Lucky to get that ball back.  Now Washington starts their drive from the Seahawk 43, need to limit this drive to a field goal.

2:54 - Best play of the day so far!  Leroy Hill comes on a blitz on third and ten, Ladell Betts steps up to block him and he loads up, runs right through Betts, reaches over and pulls Collins down with one hand, what a manly play!

3:04 - Big challenge going on, Redskins stopped on 4th and 1.  Ref is looking at the spot to see if the ball crossed the first down line.  I don't see anything on the replays that they are showing to see anything conclusive one way or another.....The call stands! Sweet.  Gutsy call by Joe Gibbs.  Can the hawks take advantage and get into scoring position?  I think that they are in ultra conservative mode after the Hasselbeck fumble.

3:13 - Interesting stat, this is the first time a Joe Gibbs team has been shut out in the first half of a playoff game.  Seahawks 10, Redskins 0 at the half.  First quarter was all about the Seahawk offense, the second quarter was all about the Seahawk defense.  The field position battle was all in the Redskins favor during the second quarter, but they couldn't take advantage of it due to the ability of the hawk defense to put pressure on Collins and neutralizing the passing game.  The Skins have also dropped 4 passes which hasn't helped. 

3:29 - First possession of the second half, Seattle receives, makes one first down, then nothing.  On second down, Shaun Alexander was in the backfield, went in motion and Hasselbeck threw him a pass in the flat, tackled for no gain.  I can understand wanting to show pass once in a while when Alexander is in so that teams can't key on run when he is in and pass when Morris is in.  But why throw him the ball???  He is a terrible pass catcher, has no ability to turn and get up field, why not throw it to someone who could actually make a play?  It is almost like kneeling down for a play.  Easy equation, don't throw Alexander a pass, ever.

3:43 - OK Matt, no more running around.  Hasselbeck scrambled on a third and 7 from the Washington 16 and paid the price.  Fred Smoot got a clean shot to the right leg of our QB, not what we need to see.  Lucky to hold onto the ball.  Field Goal good, Seattle 13, Washington 0.

3:56 - Big fourth down call again by Gibbs, going for it on fourth and one from the Seahawk 25.  Instead of a run with leading rusher Clinton Portis, Al Saunders calls for a play action pass and Brian Russell gets his feet tangled up with Mike Cellers and gets flagged for pass interference, bummer.  Third and goal coming up on the first play of the fourth quarter.  Score is still Seattle 13 Washington 0. 

3:59 - Crap, TD Washington.  The pass rush that has been there all day for Seattle has disappeared, Collins has all day to throw and Randle El finds a hole short of the end zone, Collins hits him and he walks in.  The Seahawk offense which has done nothing since the first quarter has to get something done now.  Score is Seattle 13 Washington 7.

4:34 - Now everyone is going to think that this blog went off line because of the second Washington TD and the two Hasselbeck interceptions, but that wasn't it.  My 15 month old daughter, who had been so good through the game, needed lunch, daddy duty trumps blog...

That being said, pass rush bad, hasselbeck worse for a 10 minute period there.  The Hawks have come back now though.  The pass to Hackett that put the Hawks back ahead was a great play  by Hasselbeck as he looked off the safety and Hackett made a great move on the slot cornerback.  Then right away, Trufant makes an interception and runs it back for a td, how exciting for those of us who were very nervous there for a half hour.  Score Seattle 28 Washington 14. 

4:42 - The Redskins just turned the ball over on downs, as long as Seattle doesn't make any big mistakes and turns the ball over, it should be hard for Washington to come back as they need 2 TD's in the last two minutes without any timeouts.  What a game.  Seattle played a great first quarter, went into a shell for two quarters, Washington comes back and has a chance to take a big lead, but a big missed field goal turns the tide and Seattle comes back strong in the 4th.  Whew!

4:50 - The Hawks just picked off their second pass and returned it for a TD.  Now that I have the game wrapped up, I am allowed to be bummed that I didn't play the Seahawk defense.  If someone in my league played them, they have 2 turnovers, 5 sacks and 2 tds.  Great point total for a defense definitely.  Oh well, like I said, I avoided the Seahawks to avoid the jinx, real life is more important than fantasy. 

5:00 - OK Wrap Up Time:

Fantasy Players of the Game

Seahawk Defense - 21 points (2 TD, 2 INT, 5 Sacks)
DJ Hackett - 16 points (101 yards 1TD)
Antwaan Randle El - 15 points (94 yards 1TD)
Santana Moss - 12 points (68 yards 1TD)
Todd Collins - 9 points (266 yards 2 INT, 2TD)

NFL Player of the Game - Patrick Kerney
Kerney was the main force behind the Seahawk pass rush that shut down the Redskin offense for the first three quarters.  He didn't record a sack, but he was the main guy putting pressure on Todd Collins

Bring on the Packers, "We want the ball and we are going to score!"  -  Everyone remembers this quote from the coin toss the last time the Seahawks travelled to Green Bay for a playoff game in January 2004. Hasselbeck made this bold claim at the coin toss before overtime, then proceeded to throw an interception that was returned for the winning TD by Al Harris, cornerback for Green Bay.  Hopefully Matt will play better next week!

I will get the easy one over with first.

San Diego/Tennessee - The only way Tennessee wins this game is if the rain causes enough problems for Philip Rivers that the passing game is completely ineffective and the Titans can cause some turnovers.  With the injuries to Scaife, Williams and Haynesworth/Young playing at less than 100%, Tennessee is at a serious disadvantage.  Put that together with San Diego playing at home and peaking at the end of the season and this one could be a blow out.  I see Tomlinson having a big day, Rivers being conservative but effective and the defense causing 3 or 4 turnovers maybe even returning one for a score.  Key player that could turn this score is Lendale White.  I had him on a fantasy team this year and he is maddening.  He can have 100 yards and a score when you don't expect it, then you count on him in a big week and  runs for 47 yards with a fumble.  If the weather is bad, that would favor the big back.  Score = San Diego 37 Tennessee 9

Tampa Bay/New York - This is the toughest game to call.  With New York showing so well last week against New England, but getting banged up in the process and looking at a season of inconsistency, they are hard to peg.  Tampa on the other hand clinched their division a month ago and hasn't really played well for a few weeks.  Tampa is a much better team at home and the Giants are a better team on the road, so that is a wash.  Weather shouldn't be a factor in Florida.  So it comes down to a guessing game about which quarterback can perform better against the opposing defense as I think both teams can run the ball pretty well this week.  Eli has been the model of inconsistency, throwing 4 td's against the Patriots, but 5 total in the previous 4 weeks.  Combine that with his 20 interceptions this year and how can you know what he will give the team this week.  Garcia has been limited by injuries the last few weeks so it is also hard to say what he has left at this point in the season.  When it comes to weapons each qb has to work with, Eli has a pretty big advantage.  Burress is a monster to guard, along with Toomer that is a much better duo than the aging but explosive Galloway and Hilliard.  Without Shockey the tight end position is similar in ability and the running backs are a wash in the passing game as well.  The Giants have the better pass rush, and the Bucs have the better overall defense and scheme.  I have been thinking all week that the Bucs would win, but I think Burress makes the difference in the red zone and the Giants will pull it out on the road.  Score = Giants 23 Bucs 20

Enjoy the games.

If anyone out there is playing playoff fantasy football, I will put some "plays" on the pickups/plays page.  Here is an outlook on each of the games:

Seattle/Washington - I am a biased writer on this game being a die hard Seahawk fan.  I see a game very similar to the 2005 wild card game between these two teams.  Seattle is great at stopping the run at home, which should force Todd Collins to beat them through the air.  This guy has not started a playoff game in his life and Quest field is one of the toughest places to play in the league.  It should be raining which should also impact the passing game.  As long as Seattle can prevent the big play, which is why they signed Brian Russell and Deon Grant, they should be able to contain the Redskin offense.  When the hawks have the ball, I expect the Redskins to also shut down the run, but Hasselbeck should have more success throwing at home, with a more controlled short passing game.  Special teams in not that special for either side.  Key player who could swing this score the other way - Santana Moss.  Two years ago, Seattle could not get off the field on third and long because the could not cover Moss running a "poker" (post curl) route over the middle.  He hits this a couple of times and the safety comes down, he could get deep for a big play. Prediction = Seattle 20 Washington 13. 

Pittsburgh/Jacksonville - Everyone is saying the key to this game is how Jacksonville is built for playing outdoors in January with a great running game and physical defense.  I think this game is going Jacksonville's way for another reason.  The complete disappearance of the Steeler pass rush.  What has happened to their ability to get to the QB this year?  Without pressure on David Garrard, he should be able to convert third down throws and concentrate on running on first and second down.  This should keep the Jags offense on schedule and limit turnovers, something they are good at avoiding anyway.  Along with the injuries to Willie Parker and Marvel Smith, Big Ben is going to have a long day getting knocked around.  Teams have winning streaks against other teams for a reason, matchups matter.  Prediction = Jacksonville 27 Pittsburgh 14.

Sunday games to come tomorrow....

I have started a playoff fantasy football pool on CBS Sportsline, if you want to join this group for the competition, let me know.