What is slugging percentage?  The formula is pretty simple, it is Total Bases / At Bats.  So if you get a single, which is one base obviously, then your slugging percentage is 1.000, one base, one at bat.  If you get out in your next at bat, you have a slugging percentage of .500 now, one base, two at bats.  Pretty simple.  Now, typically the elite sluggers in baseball have a slugging percentage of .600 or better.  How many players reached this milestone last year?  The answer is 7.

1 - Arod .645
2 - Ryan Braun - .634
3 - Carlos Pena - .627
4 - David Ortiz - .621
5 - Prince Fielder - .618
6 - Matt Holliday - .607
7 - Chipper Jones - .604

When I look at these numbers, Arod and Ortiz are the only two that don't raise eyebrows right off the top.  They are both bigtime sluggers and they hit over .300 for their batting averages, which cuts down on the overall number of extra base hits you need to make up the extra bases to get you to a .600 slugging average.  See, to have a .600 slugging percentage, if you have a batting average that exactly equals .300, that means you have to average a double everytime you get a hit.  If you hit lower than .300 you have to average more than a double, and if you hit higher than .300 you can average less than a double.  So for guys above like Pena and Fielder who have not hit .300 before in thier careers, it is surprising that they are on this list, but with the seasons they had (Fielder 50 homers and Pena 47 homers) it is no wonder.  Then the two guys who are not typically considered sluggers, Holliday and Jones, who reached this milestone.  This was due mainly to their plus .330 batting averages that lowered their extra base hits required to make it to .600 slugging.  Then there is Ryan Braun.  A Rookie who came out of nowhere to put up the second best slugging % in the major leagues.  How did he do it?  Easy, all he had to do, was have a .516 batting average against left handed pitching, and a slugging percentage of .964 (111 at bats).  This outrageous number lifted his more realisting splits against right handed pitchers (.319/.526) to the upper echelon of sluggers.  I have Braun on both of my keeper leagues and as much as I like these numbers, it is highly unlikely that he duplicates them, and a full season of .550 slugging, while still very good, is in his future.

How many outfielders hit 30 or more Home Runs in 2007? 

Dunn - 40
Holliday - 36
Berkman - 34
Beltran - 33
Soriano - 33
Chris Young - 32
Carlos Lee - 32
Griffey - 30
Burrell - 30

9 - That's it.  What does this mean?  To me, it means that you can fill your outfield with more well rounded outfielders, or outfielders that hit for high average or have big speed and not lose too much in the power categories.  You can focus your power production at your corner infield spots and wait on outfielders til later in the draft.  I don't see this number changing much this year, Manny Ramirez and Grady Sizemore may climb up to this level, but I doubt Griffey and Burrell stay here. 

Who am I?

1989 - 208 IP, 168K, 12W, 11L, 2.50 ERC (Adjusted earned run average)
1990 - 231 IP, 170K, 14W, 11L, 3.37 ERC
1991 - 229 IP, 148K, 14W, 13L, 3.15 ERC
1992 - 246 IP, 215K, 15W, 12L, 2.73 ERC
1993 - 243 IP, 208K, 15W, 11L, 3.29 ERC
1994 - 134 IP, 113K, 6W, 10L, 3.44 ERC
1995 - 192 IP, 193K, 12W, 7L, 3.08 ERC
1996 - 253 IP, 276K, 24W, 8L, 2.17 ERC
1997 - 256 IP, 241K, 15W, 12L, 2.89 ERC
1998 - 167 IP, 173K, 17W, 3L, 2.67 ERC
1999 - 186 IP, 156K, 11W, 8L, 2.81 ERC
2000 - DNP Elbow
2001 - 59 IP, 57K, 10/11 Saves, 2.85 ERC
2002 - 80 IP, 85K, 55/59 Saves, 2.06 ERC
2003 - 64 IP, 73K, 45/49 Saves, 1.50 ERC
2004 - 81 IP, 85K. 44/49 Saves, 2.73 ERC
2005 - 229 IP, 169K, 14W, 7L, 2.83 ERC
2006 - 232 IP, 211K, 16W, 9L, 3.32 ERC
2007 - 205 IP, 197K, 14W, 8L, 3.07 ERC

Sounds like someone I want on my fantasy team.  This pitcher has never had an ERA over 3.85 in his career outside of 1994 when he was injured.  His wins and K's have been very consistent and his innings pitched have been steady as well.  His career Whip is 1.17.  Who am I?

John Smoltz - Atlanta Braves

Day 9 - Worst hitters for Swing and Miss % (How often a hitter swings the bat and hits nothing but air)

Jack Cust - 25.4%
Ryan Howard - 25.0%
Sammy Sosa - 24.5%
Mark Reynolds - 24.4%
Miguel Olivo - 24.2%
Carlos Pena - 22.7%
Brad Hawpe - 22.3%
Johnny Gomes - 21.4%
Andruw Jones - 20.4%
Dan Uggla - 20.3%
John Buck - 20.2%
Geoff Jenkins - 20.0%

What else do all of these hitters have in common?  Relative to their positions, they are all home run type hitters who typically hit for a low average.  There are exceptions to this rule, as Carlos Pena and Brad Hawpe had respectable averages in 2007 and Ryan Howard hit over 300 in 2006, but normally, if you swing and miss alot, that means you strike out alot and it means that your BABIP (batting average on balls put in play) has to be exceptionally high to keep your average up.  Like the stats from yesterday on pitcher's batting average against, the balls in play for a hitter are going to vary from year to year as to how many of them fall for hits or are caught for outs, so all of these hitters are serious risks to your batting average in fantasy because they could easily have a season where the flares don't fall and they hit .250 all year.  No fun.  On the flip side, if you can handle the crappy batting average, these guys do provide solid power as they are swinging for the fences all the time, which is why they miss the ball entirely so much. 

Day 8 - Pitcher's Batting Average Against (Skill or Luck?)

Here are the top 12 pitchers for 2007 as ranked by their batting average against. (Batting average of the hitters they have faced)

1 - Chris Young - SD - .192
2 - Jake Peavy - SD - .208
3 - Erik Bedard - BAL - .212
4 - AJ Burnett - TOR - .214
5 - Johan Santana - MIN - .225
6 - Oliver Perez - NYM - .229
7 - Dustin McGowan - TOR - .230
8 - Justin Verlander - DET - .233
9 - Carlos Zambrano - CHC - .233
10 - Rich Hill - CHC - .235
11 - Matt Cain - SFO - .235
12 - John Maine - NYM - .235

So what goes into this number?  Every time a batter puts his bat on the ball and a defender doesn't catch it, it is a hit, right?  Every "seeing eye single", every bloop, every flare, as well as every line drive, hot shot or home run counts against this stat.  So when a pitcher goes through a season with a leading BAA, how do you tell how much of the former vs the latter makes up his BAA?  The typical reasoning is that over time, the first group of hits, the lucky ones, even out, so if you have a season where they are all caught, the next season they may all fall in.  If this is the case, then every tick up the BAA goes, the worse off a pitcher's whip and ERA are likely to be.  So when you are doing your fantasy draft and you are trying to decide between guys on this list who had outstanding years last season, vs another pitcher like Felix Hernandez (who had a BAA of .280) you must take into account the likelihood of a correction in the BAA which will impact thier numbers overall.  Two seasons ago, Jake Peavy had a Whip of 1.22 and an ERA over 4, so did his stuff change all of a sudden and guys can't hit him now, or did his "luck" factor swing his way in '07?  Are some of the "up and comers" on this list just lucky or will Maine, McGowan and Hill be in line for a downturn in Whip and ERA? 

Day 5 - Park Index for top 5 run/home run producers and bottom 5 run/home run producers in the National League

When you are deciding between two players of similar value, one of the factors that may help you decide is what type of advantage does their home park provide.  It is common knowledge that Safeco field is a pitcher's park, but by how much more or less than Petco Park in San Diego, another pitcher's paradise?  Now these parks are in different leagues so there are other things that go into these numbers, but here are the top 5 and bottom 5 parks for the National League on average for the last 3 years. (Index is % above or below the mean, the higher the number the better)

National League
Top 5 Runs
Coors Field (Rockies) (119 run index)
Great American Ballpark (Reds) (112)
Chase Field (Diamondbacks) (111)
Wrigley Field (Cubs) (108)
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) (105)

Bottom 5 Runs
Petco Park (Padres) (81)
Shea Stadium (Mets) (93)
Busch Staduim (Cards) (94)
Dolphins Stadium (Marlins) (95)
Minute Maid Park (Astros) (96)

Top 5 Home Runs
Citizens Bank (130)
Great American (128)
Chase Field (115)
Minute Maid (113)
Coors (112)

Bottom 5 Home Runs
Pac Bell Park (Giants) (79)
Busch (80)
PNC Park (Pirates) (80)
Petco (85)
Shea (90)

Highlights:
Santana should kick butt with the Mets pitching in Shea Stadium
There are fields where it is harder to score overall, but easier to hit home runs (Minute Maid)
Stay away from any Padres, that field is just brutal for hitters
How did Barry hit so many homers at the field that is the hardest home run park in the NL?
Same for Pujols
Coors field produces runs by the bushel, but not by way of the home run
Philly and Cinci have launching pads basically
The young D-Backs will enjoy their home, just wait until they mature in a couple of years

Day 4 - 6 Pitchers allowed 30 or more Home Runs last year, who doesn't fit?

1 - Woody Williams - 35
2 - Livan Hernandez - 34
3 - Johan Santana - 33
4 - Chuck James - 32
5 - Adam Eaton - 30
6 - Jamie Moyer - 30

Hmmm, here are the career era's of the 6 pitchers above 4.13, 4.25, 3.22, 4.00, 4.70, 4.21.  I would say an ERA of 3.22 stands out here.  I was shocked when I looked at these numbers and found Johan Santana was 3rd in the majors in homers allowed.  He does have a high flyball rate for his career, but his stuff has been so dominating that few guys can center the ball consistently on him.  24 homers was his previous career high.  So this means one of two things, either Santana is losing his ability to decieve hitters with his changeup (maybe the speed difference with his fastball is declining) or last year was an anomaly and he will go back to his typical high teens home run totals.  Factor in the move to the weaker national league and I am betting that Santana bounces back and cuts both his homers allowed and ERA down significantly in 2008.

Day 3 - 7 pitchers who average 3+ ground balls per every fly ball

Physics say that a ball can't go over the fence if it is hit on the ground, so pitchers who rely on heavy sinking fastballs and can induce a high number of grounders should be able to keep the ball in the park, keep pitch counts down and be in line for a solid number of wins and a lower ERA.  These guys don't always have the best WHIP or strikeout rates, but if you are looking for a great anchor to your staff who won't hurt you too bad most of the time out, try these 7 guys. 

1 - Derek Lowe 4.29 GB/FB - This guy has won double digit games 6 years in a row and has 7 years of sub 4 ERA since 1999.
2 - Brandon Webb 3.82  - Webb is the best of this bunch, because he can strike guys out as well as keep them pounding balls into the dirt.
3 - Tim Hudson 3.54 - Rediscovered his sinker last year with Atlanta, very similar in makeup and ability to Derek Lowe.
4 - Fausto Carmona 3.47 - 19 game winner in his first full year as a starter.  His K rate should improve as well, he throws his sinker harder than anyone else on this list and with just a bit of deception with other pitches should be able to put guys down when he needs them.
5 - Felix Hernandez 3.28 - Most surprising member of the group as most everyone views King Felix as a power pitcher, but even at a young age he is learning the value of a ground ball in keeping his pitch counts down.  As his concentration improves and he stays focused through games he will pass Webb as the best of this bunch.
6 - Chien Ming-Wang 3.14 - No strikeouts here, but ground ball after ground ball leads to 19 wins in consecutive seasons with a solid 3+ ERA on a strong team, this should continue indefinitely.
7 - Aaron Cook 3.04 - No name pitcher on the list was hurt part of 2007 which held down his overall numbers, but with the stellar Colorado defense behind him, this guy could be a solid 4/5 starter for fantasy teams in 08.

Day 2 - Top 5 Players in Pitches Seen for 2007

Theoretically, the number of pitches a batter sees in each at bat, in each game, in each season should allow him to feel more comfortable with what he is doing in the batter's box.  By seeing a large number of pitches each year should also allow a hitter to figure out over time which pitches are the best ones to hit and get better at putting the good part of the bat on the ball.  Practice makes perfect and what is better practice than live pitching in big league games.  Being among the league leaders in pitches seen also denotes a few other factors, health (can't see a pitch very well from the bench or training room), place in batting order, and overall team offensive production.  I would say that it would be highly unlikely that any of the following players would be prone to swings in production as they are probably the best experts at the number one thing a hitter does, see ball, hit ball.  Pick any of these guys with confidence.

1 - Grady Sizemore 3,112 - The fact that Sizemore is the number one guy here is probably a good indicator that his increased walks in 2007 are no fluke and his patience will help him even more as he matures overall as a hitter.
2 - Bobby Abreu 3,063 - Well known patient hitter in the middle of a potent lineup.  No wonder he led the American League outfielders in runs scored at 123.
3 - Brian Roberts 3,013 - Very consistent the last 4 years and had his highest walk rate last year, could be a sign of one last career upswing.
4 - Jimmy Rollins - 3,001 - Helps to play 162 games in the leadoff position, but even though Rollins' walk rate is not any where close to the other guys on this list, this number may be a good indication as to why he has progressed so much the last two years and why he could stay there through his prime.
5 - Todd Helton - 2,974 - Like Abreu, Helton is a player who has always made pitchers work for everything the get from him.  Helton led the National League in pitches per plate appearance  (4.36)

New feature I just thought up.  I am going to share an interesting and hopefully useful stat with everyone each day until baseball season. 

Day 1 - Best single pitch in MLB for 2007
What pitcher threw the most successful pitch in the major leagues last year?  This pitcher threw the pitch 34% of the time he was on the mound and he held opposing batters to an insanely low .429 OPS while throwing it.  Any guesses???

Erik Bedard, the newest member of the Seattle Mariners, threw his curveball better than any other pitcher threw any other pitch.  You hear about the Justin Verlander fastball, the Johan Santana changeup and the Jake Peavy slider, but they all fell far short of the effectiveness of the Erik Bedard curve.  Having a weapon like this, along with his developing control is what made him so effective in 2007.  Moving to a much more pitcher friendly ballpark in a much weaker offensive division should also lead to a huge 2008 for Bedard. 

The blackout on the site was due to the fact that my mother was diagnosed with Pancreatic Cancer.  This was a shock to our entire family as my mother has always been in great health and goes to great lengths to stay that way.  It wasn't until January 18th, that she started showing syptoms.  My sister saw my mom that day and asked her if she had been tanning lately (something my mother would never do) because she was looking very yellow.  This concerned my mom enough to go see the doctor about it and it turned out that her skin tone was jaundice.  This was caused by a blockage in the bile duct of her pancreas and the initial fear was that a cancerous tumor was causing it, but it took two weeks of tests and visiting with multiple doctors to get a final diagnosis.  The initial fears were confirmed and after consulting with a surgeon, it appears that my mother's tumor is inoperable due to the location interfering with the portal vein, a major blood vessel.  So now she is on to oncology which through chemotherapy and other drug treatments they will attempt to extend her life as long as possible, while keeping her comfortable and free of pain.  Pancreatic cancer is the 4th most common form of the disease and one of the most deadly.  Only 15 patients in 100 live one year after diagnosis.  We are keeping our hopes up and planning on enjoying the time we have left.  I wanted to post this information so that anyone who reads it that has not dealt with this type of thing before understands that it can happen at any time to anyone and we should all enjoy the people that matter to us as much as possible every day.