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Monday, March 17, 2008

I'm Back!
It has been 3 weeks since the last posting.  This was due to 3 big events.  First, my mom's ongoing battle with Pancreatic cancer is tough.  Second, my wife and daughter spent 2 weeks in Japan which should have led to more time online, but instead led to more time figuring out how to take care of myself.  Third, my own baseball draft took place over the first week of March and it was impossible to focus on anything else while I built my team.  I will focus this posting on my own draft results.  I will also post my league's results on the site.  (Take it with a grain of salt though since we are in a long term keeper league with specific rules that change how the draft results look since 60 players are kept in the round they were originally drafted historically ie. Hanley Ramirez is a 21st round draft pick and Prince Fielder is a 16th rounder.)

Here is my team in order of selection with a quick thought on each player.

Keepers =
C - Brian McCann ATL (round 21) - having a top 5 catcher with this late of a draft price is a no brainer
1B - Prince Fielder MIL (Round 16) - even at the deepest position, he is a sure keeper with his 50 homers at age 23
SS - Jimmy Rollins PHI (Round 3) - I knew if I didn't keep Rollins I wouldn't get him back (I had the last pick in the first round since I won the league the year before)
3B - Ryan Braun MIL (Round 22) - I traded Arod straight up for Braun for a few reasons, #1 I hate Arod and the Yankees and #2 Braun has the potential to be a decent substitute for a 20 round discount
SP - Dan Haren ARI (Round 7) - I think Haren will be a great strikeout pitcher now that he is in the national league

In addition to these picks I have forfeited to keep these players, I don't have picks in round 6 or 8 due to trades made last season to acquire players to help with my playoff push. (Dice K stunk which wasted my 6th rounder, but King Felix was well worth the 8th rounder)  Here is the rest of my draft.

1 - RF - Nick Markakis BAL- We split our outfield by LF/CF/RF so it adds a layer of complexity to building the team which is fun.  Markakis is a great RF who is a 30/30 candidate as soon as this year.  The worse the Orioles are, the more he may run.
2 - 3B - Garrett Atkins COL- I actually made this pick to fill my LF position since Ryan Braun is moving there to start the season and will have eligibility by week 3.  Atkins was the most well rounded hitter left and other than a 2 month dry spell to begin '07, Atkins has hit over 320 for the other 10 months the last two years.  Likely line of .315 100 30 100 is what I see.
3 - Rollins
4 - CF - Hunter Pence HOU - I seriously thought about taking Pence in the second round, but I gambled that he would make it back to me and I won.  The only downside to Pence is his spot in the batting order.  With the acquisition of Kaz Matsui, Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada to go with Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, Pence should spend most of the season in the 6 hole which will cost him about 100 plate appearances compared to the 2 hole he hit in last year. 
5 - SP - James Shields TBY - I had a tough choice here between Nick Swisher (who would fill my utility spot) or Shields.  With Haren my only pitcher at the time, and not having picks in round 6-8, if I had passed on Shields my pitching staff would have been seriously compromised.  Shields is also great in K/BB my favorite stat.  This gamble paid off later too, when I picked Jim Thome in round 11 to be my utility player.
6 - 8 No picks (OUCH) Players I missed out on that I wanted.  Kelly Johnson, Javier Vazquez, and Joba Chamberlain
9 - SP - Ted Lilly CHC - All the projections I see on Lilly have him reverting back to the numbers he had in the A.L.  Lilly is a great buy because he is in the national league to stay and his numbers should be solid.
10 - 2B - Howie Kendrick LAA - Plus Plus Average is his big ability and has the potential for double digit homers and steals.  Sure would prefer he replaced Matthews Jr as the 2 hole hitter. Hard to produce consistently in the 7 hole.  In this keeper league he should be a good option for a keeper next year.
10 - 3B - Evan Longoria TBY - This pick was an extra I picked up in a trade and what better time to take a gamble on the best prospect of 2008?  Longoria has minor league numbers almost exactly the same as Ryan Braun.  Here is hoping he is more Braun than Gordon.
11 - U - Jim Thome CHW - Perfect Utility player, solid power numbers and safe average and obp.
12 - RP - Matt Capps PIT - I targeted this guy prior to the draft, I really like undervalued closers on bad teams that put up stellar ratios.  Capps is exactly what I am looking for. 
13 - RP - Joakim Soria KC - See Capps explanation! We start 3 RP's so I am looking good at closer for a cheap price.
14 - SP - Dustin McGowan TOR - This guy could go either way, build on his strong 2007 or regress.  All depends on how his control numbers go, he walks more than 75 and I will be cutting him, he improves there and he is a steal due to his strong K rates and solid offensive support.
15 - LF - Raul Ibanez SEA - Since Braun won't be LF eligible until week 3, I needed a solid fill in for the first two weeks.  Ibanez has an easy schedule to start the season and will be a solid bench guy I can count on if injuries hit Braun, Atkins or Thome.
16 - Fielder
17 - RP - Rafael Betancourt CLE - There is NO WAY Borowski survives as closer again this year, he is terrible.  Betancourt is lights out, just ask the Red Sox who they would rather face. 
18 - LF/CF - Cameron Maybin FLA - Being in a keeper league, once I have filled my starting spots, which I have now, it is all about young keeper prospects and young veterans who could break out due to certain factors.  Maybin has the best K/BB rate of any of the young hitters.  Should be a great source for steals right off.
19 - CF - Lastings Milledge WAS - Big breakout candidate with move to Washington, hitting second and starting every day in center. 
20 - 2B - Freddy Sanchez PIT - Only regret of the draft, should have taken Aaron Hill here.
21 - McCann
22 - Braun
23 - RF - Austin Kearns WAS - Home/Road splits were brutal, move to new home park should be huge benefit
24 - CF - Jay Bruce CIN - Only roadblock here is Dusty Baker and his love affair with Corey Patterson and his .295 OBP.  What idiot of a manager thinks speed is the only skill needed in a leadoff hitter?  The dude needs to be on base to use the speed and Patterson STINKS.
25 - 1B - Conor Jackson ARI - Power developing to go with fantastic approach at the plate.  Hitting 3rd in young lineup doesn't hurt.
26 - SP - Mike Mussina NYY - Hoping injuries were the cause for '07 crap.  I will always let pitching wait because I am confident that I can pick up solid starters as the season goes on.
27 - SP - Luke Hochevar KC - Chance to make rotation and solid ratios, taking a chance and could easily drop him before season starts.
28 - LF - Jason Kubel MIN - Mr. Irrelevant.  Already dropped him for Spring Training K leader Edinson Volquez.  Jump on this kid, looks very good.  Just set down the Phillies A team for no runs.

All in All, I am really enjoying my draft and team.  I am solid, young and full of potential backed up by just enough solid steady veterans. 

6:36 pm pdt


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