My league held our draft yesterday and here is a run down on how it went for me.

I held the 4th pick in a 10 team, snake draft league.  The first 3 picks were pretty much to be expected.  LT went first, Tom Brady second and Adrian Peterson third.  So it came to me and I was left to choose between Joseph Addai, Brian Westrbook, Steven Jackson, Randy Moss and Marion Barber.  A few things to know about my league that weighs in my decision.  First, we start 3 running backs and 3 receivers with no flex spots.  This makes it even more imperative to draft running backs early because everyone needs 3 instead of 2 like most leagues.  Second, our yardage points are one per 20 yards rushing/receiving instead of one for every 10 yards.  This makes big yardage guys who don't score as many touchdowns less valuable.  Since your first pick can set the tone for your entire draft, I studied each of these guys pretty carefully leading up to the draft.  I looked at Addai and he has the potential to score a bunch of touchdowns in the Indy offense but he slowed down last season and has been nicked up before.  The thing that turned me off to him was the growing worry about Peyton Manning.  If Manning misses time Addai goes downhill quick.  I may be over thinking this one, but add up the worries and it is a risk I don't have to take.  Westbrook doesn't score enough rushing TD's for my liking with our scoring system so I passed on him as well.  I have written detailed reasoning behind my fear for Steven Jackson so I wasn't going to take a chance on him, even though he is just one season removed from 2000+ yards and 16 tds.  Can't take a WR in a 3 running  back league, so no Randy Moss for me.  This leaves Marion Barber.  In my mock draft I had Barber in the 7th spot, but in the last few days he kept creeping up those last few spots to where I ended up being sold on him as my pick.  Big points for Barber are his 3 season history of strong red zone touchdown production.  He is now the lead back so upping his touches by 5-10 per game will push his yardage into the 1500+ range.  He looked greate in the 3rd preseason game, going 13 rushes for 75 yards and a TD.  Dallas has all the pieces in place on offense to give him all the opportunity he needs.  Felix Jones looks to me like a good change of pace, but not a runner who is ready for a full job share.  (And Jones fumbled early in the second half this weekend which should solidify Barber getting the rock in tough spots).  So, in summary, I went for the guy with no injury history, no real job sharing, all the red zone touches, and someone having the potential to take it to another level in his first season as the main guy. 

In the second round, I was hoping Maurice Jones-Drew would make it back to me, but I was beaten to the punch by the team just before me.  So I went with one of my favorite guys this year, Larry Fitzgerald.  I will have to build up my running back core in the middle rounds, but none of the guys left at this spot (Grant, McGahee, T. Jones, etc) were as much of a lock in my mind for big numbers as Fitzy is. 

The third round was the turning point in the draft for me.  Looking back on it, this was my only mistake selection.  Due to the Manning concerns, Reggie Wayne had fallen all the way through the second round and was there for me at the 4th pick of the 3rd round.  At the same time, there were 2 QB's left in my top tier, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger.  I was not expecting to see Reggie Wayne at this spot so I was not prepared for this decision.  If Wayne is not there, I take Drew Brees and don't look back.  But Wayne looked so great as a huge value in the 3rd round.  But in the end, I was afraid that if I passed on the QB, both Brees and Big Ben would be gone by the time I picked again in round 4.  So I passed on Reggie Wayne and selected Drew Brees.  When my pick in round 4 came back around, not only was Roethlisberger still available, but he didn't get selected until round 7, so my 20/20 hindsight leaves me thinking I should have taken Reggie Wayne and gotten Ben later.  Dang it.  All I can hope for is that Brees makes me forget this decision with a 30 TD season.

My fourth round pick was a choice between Michael Turner, Edgerrin James and Santonio Holmes.  Since I felt the pressure to get my running back position filled, I eliminated Holmes pretty quickly and was left to choose between Turner and James.  James has a better offense and will probably have a solid, yet unspectacular season.  Turner on the other hand is going to a team in flux with a rookie QB.  But I decided to take a chance on Turner because this will be the first time he has a big opportunity to start and may be the focus of the young offense.  I also was not inclined to have both Fitzgerald and James, two Cardinals, in my first 4 picks...

My fifth round pick was a surprise because I thought both James and Holmes might make it back to me and my decision would begin again.  But James got taken right before I picked and I was left with a guy who I am very high on in Santonio Holmes.  I still need to fill one RB position, but the 3 guys that were left that I was looking at, Jacobs, Forte and Kevin Smith are all further from sure things than I see Holmes being.  (Of course our draft was held before all 3rd preseason games and Kevin Smith went off just a few hours later...)

So my team at this point is
QB - Brees
RB - Barber
RB - Turner
WR - Fitzgerald
WR - Holmes

I like it so far, nice balance and a mix of performers and potential..

Round 6 led me to do something I didn't intend to do.  To that point, not a single tight end had been selected and I was thinking going into it that I would wait until the 9th, 10th or 11th round to get my tight end.  So I was weighing filling my 3rd RB or WR spot with having a chance to pick the #1 tight end.  The guys I was looking at were RB - Selvin Young, WR - Dwayne Bowe and TE - Jason Witten/Antonio Gates.  Because I didn't intend to draft a TE early, I was surprised when I did a quick comparison of Witten/Gates fantasy points from last season against the remaining WR/RB and at that point in the draft, either TE was a much better overall value than the 20th ranked WR/RB.  I am sure Witten and Gates are not available in the 6th round of most drafts so this is not a decision most of you will have to make, but I will now say that at this point, if you can get one of these two tight ends, DO IT.  I took Jason Witten simply because he is more healthy at this point than Gates.  If Gates gets healthy, he should be better, but just not 100% sure today.  Also, having Barber and Witten gives me a high % chance to score everytime a guy not named Owens scores for the potent Dallas offense.

In round 7, I was happy to see Selvin Young still available since I had considered him in round 6.  I know Denver running backs can be a headache, but I will just make sure I get Andre Hall later on so I give myself a good chance to have whichever guy ends up being the main man in the red zone at least.

Round 8 was another surprise.  Probably because of the pending suspension, Brandon Marshall was still out there when I picked and I scooped him up with a smile on my face.  I will get someone to play the first 2 weeks later in the draft who has favorable matchups and after that I will plug in a 100 catch guy who has looked fantastic during preseason and could be huge this year. 

Fast forward now, 3 of my next 4 picks were running back depth.  Ricky Williams, Ray Rice and Andre Hall all found themselves on my squad.  Williams could win the job outright in Miami, could be the goal line back or could be a bench warmer to Ronnie Brown, but worth a shot with Brown still banged up.  Rice could be in for a big year if McGahee doesn't recover from his knee surgery.  As of draft time, the news on McGahee was not positive and it didn't sound like he would be ready to start the season.  Rice may not pan out, but anytime you can get a guy who may end up starting week 1, why not...

Derrick Mason, Michael Pittman, Kurt Warner, Patriots D and Rob Bironas complete my squad.  I like getting Mason to fill in for Marshall in weeks 1 and 2.  He plays Cinci and Houston the first two weeks so the Ravens could get him one score at least.  I did end up selecting Young, Hall and Pittman, which is 3 guys to cover the Broncos ground game, which may be extreme, but I wanted to eliminate any chance that I don't have the guy who will do the scoring for them.  Warner has the starting job in Arizona and threw 27 TD's last year in 11 starts.  Good backup for Brees.  Patriots D is strong again and the offense scores so much they are often in predictable situations against the opposing quarterbacks.  Kickers don't matter, probably have a new one by opening day...

Overall, great draft for me, final roster:

QB - Brees, Warner
RB - Barber, Turner, Young, Williams, Rice, Hall, Pittman
WR - Fitzgerald, Holmes, Marshall, Mason
TE - Witten
D - Patriots
K - Bironas

I like it...Reggie Wayne better not make me regret that 3rd round pick:)

Here is some things I have heard that have me thinking....

Peyton Manning has me officially worried that his knee is worse than they are letting on.  There is lots of rumors out there about it, but the fact that he cannot run at all yet, and is barely tossing the ball around can't be a good sign.  Jim Sorgi is not a real backup and any absence by Manning would be devastating to Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai on top of Manning himself.

Tom Brady is going to be fine, not worried on this one even though his story sounds similar to Manning. 

Steven Jackson signed this week, but I am still not sure he has time to get in game shape in order to protect his health when the bullets fly.  Big injury risk remains here, not to mention his motivation may be reduced after his pay day.

Chad Johnson may miss a game or two with his shoulder injury which should drop him a round or two in your draft.  Not good, he needs his momentum at the beginning of the season after the off season issues with management.

Ricky Williams could win the Dolphins running back job over Ronnie Brown, he is healthier and has performed better so far.

Anquan Boldin should come play in Seattle if he is so unhappy in Arizona.  The Seahawks should cut Deion Branch and use his salary money to extend Boldin and give the Cards a first and third round pick for the guy.  He is perfect for the west coast system with the slants and crossing routes where he can get the ball in his hands and make something happen.  Very doubtful that the Cards are stupid enough to trade him at all, much less within the division.

Orlando Pace may have reinjured his surgically repaired shoulder which would be a big blow to Bulger, Holt and Jackson who struggled last year without him.

Matt Hasselbeck should not be a starting fantasy quarterback in any 12 team or less league.  Between the back problems and the lack of experience at WR, he could struggle for a few weeks.

Tight End Position is so deep and I don't see a clear standout.  Witten is the only guy who could distance himself, but he is a 3rd option in the red zone behind Owens and Barber.  Guys like Crumpler, Miller, Daniels, Scheffler, could easily provide solid production and allow you to ignore the position until you have all skill starters and some running back depth.

More later...

I was able to catch parts of about half a dozen games and here are some highlights of guys that look better/worse than I thought they would be.  I was at the Seahawks/Bears game Saturday night and unlike New York where the Favre debut barely half filled the Meadowlands, Qwest field was packed and very loud which is a great sign for another solid home season for the Hawks. 

Matt Forte- RB Chicago looks pretty good.  Chicago might be able to run the ball a little bit even with thier crappy QB situation.  Forte runs quick and strong and appears to be the clear starter.  He is in a good spot on my ranking list.

Justin Forcett - RB Seattle looks better than pretty good!  This 7th round pick out of Cal is going to make the Seattle roster, probably return punts and kicks to start with and could be the 3rd down back with Morris/Jones splitting time as the starters.  If they get creative with the injuries to the wide receivers, he could possibly play slot back too.  Not draftable just yet, but keep an eye on him, he could turn into a smaller version of Maurice Jones-Drew and pile up 5 td's or so this year.

Chicago passing game - stay completely away from it, whatever the QB situation is, doesn't matter, they can't pass block very well (although everyone struggles in Qwest field) and they have 0 real wideouts.

Calvin Johnson - WR Detroit could possibly supplant Roy Williams as the #1 guy in Detroit.  3 catches for 76 yards and a TD in one drive with Jon Kitna under center on Sunday.  Really didn't look like the defense could cover him with his combination of size and speed.  I am moving him up 5 spots or so.

Santonio Holmes - WR Pittsburgh, I really like this guy, he is already higher on my list than some I see, but I feel much better about that every game that goes by.  He has TD's in both preseason games and continues to get open deep and make strong catches on the jump balls.

Matt Schaub - QB Houston looks like he wants to be in the top 10 at the position this year.  14-16 and 2 td's this weekend without his top guy Andre Johnson.  Kevin Walter was the main guy 6-100, td and he could also be a sleeper to keep an eye on. 

Brandon Marshall - WR Denver It is really too bad that this guy is suspended for 2 games, hard to gauge how much of a problem that will be for teams that want to draft him.  He has a great link with Jay Cutler and is by far the best offensive player on the team.  I am not sure what to do with him, 2 games plus a bye means he misses 25% of the 13 weeks that make up the regular season for most fantasy leagues, will his production the rest of the time make up for it?  Where should he fall relative to guys like Marvin Harrison, Laveraneous Coles, Joey Galloway who will be there from the start but have less talent and/or injury risks? 

Laurence Maroney - RB New England is not going to be worth much this year.  It is obvious that the pattern the Patriots have taken the last few years is to use the RB committee most of the year and save Maroney for the playoffs.  Worked great last year as he was a beast when it mattered most.  But with Sammy Morris, Lamont Jordan and Kevin Faulk, they don't need him to carry it more than 12-15 times per game and can let Morris/Jordan bang for the tough short yards and goal line carries.  Major warning here...ok if you can get him in the 6th round or so, but you probably won't be able to..

Larry Johnson - RB Kansas City carried the ball 14 times on Saturday, WHY???  For crying out loud don't use this guy up, even after missing time the last two years he is in the top 3 in the NFL in total touches the past 3 seasons, save him for when it counts please!

Here is a list of players who either have a holdout, an injury to themselves or an in jury to another key member of their team that will negatively affect their draft status.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams, - Contract holdouts are simply a bad idea for players.  I understand the need to get paid, but from a performance perspective, missing practice time opens you up to injury risk that is not there if you are conditioning your body to contact and the pounding of the game.  I am sure Jackson is working out and staying in shape, but the first time he has to be explosive or deal with contact, it is a different impact on the body.  Going from nothing, to serious competition is a big time risk.  I used the example of Jamal Anderson in my mock draft in relation to Jackson, but a more recent example is Larry Johnson last year.  He held out, never really got going and ended up getting hurt.  Can you link the hold out and the injury directly, maybe not, but it is definintely an added risk that you can avoid on draft day.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers - Grant is dealing with a contract situation and a hamstring injury, same holds true for him as it does for Steven Jackson.  Even worse in that he has only 1/2 season under his belt performing at a high level.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens - Having knee surgery during training camp can't be good.  No timing, no practice, no conditioning.  The chances he plays up to his second round draft spot is very low.  Ray Rice is a nice backup the Ravens drafted just in case too...

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans - This guy is very productive when he plays and has a great chemistry with Matt Schaub, the Texans young QB.  But every year he ends up with some kind of leg injury.  Hamstring, knee, calf, he has had them all the last three years and is already dealing with a Hamstring in preseason.  Some guys just never stay healthy and this guy is hard to count on.  Guys in the same area for draft value that are more reliable are Holt, Roy Williams and Plaxico Burress.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks - Hasselbeck is dealing with his own back injury which has kept him out of both preseason games, but the issues that worry me more than his back are the shoulder injury to Bobby Engram, the knee injury to Deion Branch and the complete lack of experience in the rest of the receiving core.  Seattle better sign a veteran before camp is over, Burleson is not a #1 WR and cannot be counted on to carry the passing game while the veterans get healthy and the kids learn what the heck to do. 

I will likely not be drafting any of these guys or the guys around them...

Other guys who are injured that I am not worried about include Peyton Manning, McNabb, Tomlinson, Bush, Houshmandzadeh, Burress, Boldin, Harrison, Holt.   

On Monday, I will be posting a list of guys that I am officially worried about going into the season.  Whether it be hold outs, or injuries or other team issues, I will document a complete list of guys with extra risk associated with them going into the season. 

I had a conversation with a buddy last night about what to do with his 10th overall pick.  On my first round mock I have Terrell Owens in this spot and his response was that doesn't sound all that appetizing taking TO there.  I get that, and no doubt like/dislike of a player should factor into your decision making.  You have to enjoy watching your guys as much as you can, this is a game after all.  You also have to take into account your league scoring rules, how many teams are in your league and the tendencies of your league mates (if you know them).  In his case, he plays in a 12 team league and not a 10 team league which differs from my mock picks going on.  This is key because he has to assess 3 things when making his first two picks which will shape his draft entirely.  First, how important is it to fill the rb positions in relation to the number of starters required for your league.  If he has 12 teams and each team is required to start 2 RB's, that is 24 guys out of 32 starting jobs in the league.  If they also have a flex position which is usually filled with a RB, then the number moves to 36 possibly.  In this case, RB will be very scarce and maybe it tips the scales for his first pick from Owens to Lynch.  Second, he has to weigh what the two owners behind him will do.  Will they both go RB-RB?  Will they mix it up?  How certain is he to get one of the second tier running backs with his second pick?  If you don't know at all, you may be better off going running back just to be safe if the position is scarce overall.  And Third, he must decide whether or not he feels that simply picking the "surest" bet is the way to go in the first two round, in which case I would say he may be going Owens and another  WR or the next QB as once you get past Lynch, Portis, Jones Drew and maybe LJ, every running back is a total crapshoot.  Being at the back end of the draft is a very tough place to be, glad I am not there this year...  One note though, my first ever fantasy championship in 1997 I selected WR in the first two rounds (Jerry Rice and Cris Carter) so it is possible to win and not have a RB in the first two rounds.  I did get lucky with a career year from Terry Allen and the emergence of Terrell Davis.  But it can happen.

Just a note, I will not be ranking tight ends, kickers or defenses.  You should always wait to draft a kicker until the last round, period.  And I think the best way to manage your defense is to wait until the second to last round and pick a defense that is still on the board and has a favorable matchup, particularly against a young quarterback prone to making mistakes and turnovers.  Then you can rotate your defense every week if necessary as the matchups dictate.  As for tight ends, this year I don't see much separation between the best guy (Gates) and the 8th, 9th and 10th best guys, so fill out your starters at every other positon, maybe grab a little running back depth and then take whichever tight end is left, probably someone like Heath Miller or Alge Crumpler who will do just fine this year.  Don't overpay for Gates, Witten or Gonzales. 

It is time to get back into the world of fantasy football.  I am sure most people will hold their drafts sometime between August 23rd and September 3rd, which is the window between the 3rd preseason game and the day before opening kickoff.  This is definitely the best time to have your draft in order to maximize the information you have about who will play, who looks good and who does not.  It also minimizes the chance for major injury to a key player after you have drafted him.  I remember the most disappointed I have ever been after a draft was in 1999, when I thought I had the #1 sleeper in the league when I picked Trent Green who was taking the reins for the "greatest show on turf", the St. Louis Rams.  He had his knee blown up that night by Rodney Harrison during the 3rd preseason game and my QB situation was a problem all of a sudden.  Damn, I have always hated Harrison for that!  So the point is, try your best to hold your draft after these games are played so you can avoid that pain...

I will be putting up my rankings for the 2008 season shortly.  As always, rankings are nice, but it is impossible to make a ranking list that is perfect for every scoring system, so remember to just shoot me a question if you want to know how to look at any particular decision in your league...