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12/30/07 - I am still trying to figure out how the Giants scored 35 points last night. Eli Manning has been basically
terrible all year (19 TD's and 19 Ints going in), the team has been terrible at home, and their two best offensive players
wre battling bad ankles (Burress and Jacobs). So with all of that going against them, Eli plays a great game, the offensive
line gave him plenty of time, and the Jacobs/Burress tandem both had outstanding games. The one thing that stands out
to me watching the game was how slow the Patriots are overall on defense. Harrison, Seau, Bruschi and Vrabel are all
well below average speed for their positions and if the game is close and the offense can stay balanced enough to utilize
play action, you can definitely expose New England. Makes me think hard about who should be favored in the playoffs
now. The Colts, Chargers and Jaguars could all put enough pressure on Brady to keep the game close and their offenses
could expose the holes in the Patriots defense. I think the key comes down to which team can come up with the best plan
to stop Randy Moss. He is the difference maker for Tom Brady. When he can get open downfield, or get good matchups
in the red zone, the Pats can put up too many points for the other teams to match. But in the games that have been close
(Colts, Ravens, Eagles, Giants), he was contained for the most part. In the comebacks against Indy and the Giants, the
main play was a bomb to Moss. Without those two plays, would they have been able to stay undefeated? That is why
they play the games, and why we watch.
12/29/07 - First play in the Giants/Patriots game, Brandon Jacobs goes off the right side for 5 yards, and Eli Manning follows that right up on second down by going play action and throwing over the top to Plaxico Burress, great fake, throw and catch.
On the next play, Steve Smith (USC) lost a ball as he was going down and there is a challenge. Time to give my two cents on instant replay. I don't like it at all. It takes away the excitement of the moment as you wait not only for a call/non-call, but also for a challenge and then the excruciating 2 minute delay while the ref goes "under the hood". There are already too many breaks in play as it is, I am not for anything artificial that adds to this. And the other point is that the refs now seem to make the "easy" call knowing that replay can fix whatever they don't get right. I like the human element in the game and this has somehow nutured the refs ability to manage the game as they used to.
Touchdown Giants on a third down throw to Brandon Jacobs, wow, could this be a game?
12/28/07 - Quick thoughts on playoff bound NFL teams deciding to play starters and try to win, vs sit stars and rest up for the playoffs. I am 100% with Bill Belichick on this subject. He said something interesting the other day when asked if he was going to sit his stars. He said "how do you decide which guys to sit and which guys play? How do you decide who is more important than someone else? That is not the way you build a team." I totally agree. As an athlete, thoughts about possibly getting hurt cannot enter into the thought process. It has to be full speed ahead at all times and confidence is the most important mental edge that a player can take into a game. By sitting guys and not trying to win, the risk of losing the winning edge is much greater than the possibility of someone key getting hurt. I say play to win, even in week 17 with everything wrapped up.
12/27/07 - Fantasy football is probably done for most folks, but there are some leagues that continue playing in week 17. The reason most leagues end in week 16 is the unpredictability of who will play and for how long since most of the games are relatively meaningless. This week, I can see 8 teams out of 32 that legitimitely have something to play for. New England is going for a few records, 16-0, Tom Brady and his 50th TD pass, Randy Moss and his 23rd TD reception. These records should allow most of the Patriots to be usable. New Orleans is still alive for the playoffs, so Brees, Colston (provided health), Patten, and whichever running back starts (Bush, Stecker both questionable) are all in for a solid game, although at Chicago could be a tough place to play for the dome team. Cleveland is playing for a playoff spot, but needs help. They are at home against San Fran so this should be a great matchup for all offensive stars, Anderson, Edwards, Winslow and Lewis. Watch the weather here too, wind/snow could slow the passing game of course. Tennessee is on the flip side of this. They don't play until Sunday night, so if Cleveland happens to lose, they would not have the same motivation. If Cleveland wins, Tennessee will be very motivated against a Colts team that may or may not play all out. This would make Vince Young, Lendale White and possibly a wideout or two, viable starts this week. Washington holds their own destiny in their hands. If they beat Dallas they are in, and Dallas will likely be resting several key guys. The NFL deftly made this game and the Minnesota game at the same time so that the playoff results will be dependent upon each other. Portis has been great the last few weeks, he is a must play. Cooley is the only other sure thing for Washington. Of course, this puts Minnesota in the same boat. I would count on both backs, Peterson and Taylor, as well as Tavaris Jackson to play well at Denver. Pittsburgh and San Diego are playing to avoid Jacksonville and New England in the first two rounds. This is great motivation I am sure. This should lead to all impacting players being available for use in week 17. Watch out for LT and his hamstring though.
Outside of these 8 teams, it will be hard to gauge who will be taking the final games seriously and who will not. For any team already in the playoffs, like Seattle, thier coach may talk a good game about starters going the whole way, but all it takes is one scare or one hit to the QB for them to pull the plug. For teams completely out of the playoffs, will they stick with their lead guys or see what the young unproven players can do? It would be one thing if they say before hand what the exact split will be, but that rarely happens. Watch NFL network all week for any tidbits like this. Good Luck, it will be a crap shoot.
12/26/07 - Well, fantasy football is over for most everyone, including me. I ended up taking second in my office league and third in my money league. I should be more upset about ending up in third place in my money league because the $ are so much more significant for me, but I am not. I had Tom Brady in that league and basically nothing else, so when he laid an egg in week 15, I was toast. In my office league, I went into the playoffs as the #1 seed, having distanced myself from the second place team by more than 100 points and had 300 points more than the #3 seed that I faced in the championship. But in week 16, when it counted, my team put up it's second lowest total of the year. BAD TIMING GUYS. It definitely didn't help that Terrell Owens got hurt, Chad Johnson, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch played in poor weather and LT came up with a sore hamstring on his way to a monster game. The one guy I had on both teams who was probably the biggest disappointment to me this year, Antonio Gates. He had one catch for 24 yards total in weeks 15 and 16, what the HECK? Oh well, that is the breaks I guess. It was still a fun year and in the big picture, a second and a third is not all that bad. Now some of you will have week 17 action still to come, so let me know if you have any questions on what will happen, I will still be paying close attention. Also, anyone in a keeper league, decisions may be due soon as well. Congratulations to everyone on a great season. Good luck with basketball and baseball.
12/23/07 - Fantasy football is a funny bird. I am winning one fantasy matchup today, but it is the consolation game for 3rd/4th place. I am losing the other matchup which is for the championship. There is much more money on the line in my 3rd place game, but I can't shake the desperation over losing the championship in what is basically a playing for pride league. Football is so tough to figure. One play for a player can make a week and one injury can derail an entire team. Weather is also a huge factor for fantasy playoffs. The blizzard last week in the northeast created Tom Brady's first TDless game. In a season he is setting records, he goes scoreless in the most important fantasy week of the year, week 15. All you can do I guess, is try to run the most probable high scorers out there and hope for good luck, because that is all fantasy football is, luck. How many championships were ruined over injuries to stars like Terrell Owens, Marques Colston, or Willis McGahee. And how many championships were just affected by the 80 yard touchdown pass in garbage time from Troy Smith to Derrick Mason???
12/23/07 - A bit sad that this is the last Sunday of fantasy football for most folks. I am going to enjoy the games today and hope that my teams that are behind will come back and win. I am kind of wary about the "sure things" that look so good today. Jacksonville running against Oakland sounds great and looks perfect on paper. Jax runs the ball well, Oakland has been one of the worst at stopping the run, particularly on the road. Fred Taylor has had 4 straight 100 yard games and looks like a sure bet in this game, but I am wondering if the streak ends today either due to a surprising defensive effort or the affect of the continuous rotation with Jones-Drew. Can you definitively say who will score more points today. Even after Taylor's hot streak, Jones-Drew has more total points this year. Another sure thing looks like the New Orleans passing game, Colston could have a big game, as could Brees and Patten. But Philly took it to Dallas last week and could give the Saints a tough time with man coverage and pressure. Finally, how does everyone feel about Ladanian Tomlinson on Monday night? The Chargers are in the 3 or 4 seed for sure and he sat out half of the last game once they got a lead. Are you confident that LT will get 20 touches this week against Denver???? Good luck, enjoy the games.
12/22/07 - Update to my fantasy matchup this week. I am down 47-0 and I have Terrell Owens going tonight and she has Jason Witten. The last two games, both Cowboy struggles, Witten has gotten the majority of looks and catches. Hopefully TO can turn this around tonight, I need to do some catching up. Prediction tonight Dallas 34 Carolina 13. Owens 110 yards 1TD, Witten 70 yards 1 TD. Hopefully it will be more lopsided to Owens, but I doubt it.
12/21/07 - In every sport, there is one stat that I cannot stomach players being bad at, so I avoid having those type players on my team. In basketball, FT% is the one category I cannot stand to have someone torpedo. So I will never own Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan or Lebron James even until they get above 80%. In baseball, walks by pitchers is the one area that I have a hard time watching one of my guys rack up. Carlos Zambrano is a good example of a quality pitcher I will never own. And in football, red zone interceptions by QB's is the worst trait to have for me. So goodbye Eli Manning.
12/20/07 - Predicted I would be down 49-0 going against 4 pittsburgh players and I am down 47-0, pretty close, even though the distribution was a bit different. I missed on the score as well, I predicted 31-10 and it was 41-24 (21 vs 17 point spread). Pretty good night for the predictions, bad night for my fantasy squad.
12/20/07 - Going against Roethlisberger in both my leagues. I am down 22-2 in one league (I have the Pitt D), and I am down 36-0 in the other league. Dang it I hate when I am right.
12/20/07 - Start of the second quarter and I already have to say "I told you so". The steelers offense is moving up and down the field. Roethlisberger already has well over 100 yards and two TDs. Holmes has quite a few yards and I am getting my butt kicked by a girl. The only surprise is how easily the Rams have countered. What has happened to the Steeler D? They flat out suck.
12/20/07 - My opponent in the championship this week has 4 Pittsburgh players out of the 9 she will be playing. My prediction below would tend to support this decision, I am not optimistic about how the score will look after tonight. She has Roethlisberger (15 points), Ward (14 points), Holmes (12 points) and the Pittsburgh D (8 points). If this prediction is correct, I will be down 49 to nothing.
12/19/07 - The Celtics are struggling at home against the Pistons. The Celtics have enjoyed a very easy schedule so far, with only two games out of the eastern time zone. Is their 20-2 record a complete mirage? Ray Allen missed a few games already with his ankle issues, can the big 3 hold it together? Garnett is an intense competitor, but he is not taking over this game, WHY NOT???
12/19/07 - There are a few people going to the Sonics game tonight. I asked them to take some mental notes and send me their thoughts on what they see and I will post them on the website. Tonight the Sonics host the New Orleans Hornets and Chris Paul. It should be interesting what they think of Kevin Durant and Chris Paul in person. If anyone else goes to a live event and wants to share some thoughts, let me know and I will be happy to post them on this blog.
12/19/07 - Pittsburgh at St Louis tomorrow in the first game of week 16 which is the championship week for most leagues. I am up against most of the Pittsburgh offense in one of my leagues and I am worried that they will be taking out their frustrations over consecutive losses on the Rams. Big Ben, Ward, Holmes, Parker, Reed should all have big games. The defense may even step up on short rest and show the league that they can still make plays. Bulger has almost no protection up front and if Pitt can stop Steven Jackson, they can really come after him and cause some mistakes. Game prediction, Pitt 31 Stl 10.
12/18/07 - This past weekend, Tom Brady cost me a victory in the semi-finals of my football league and I am sure he let alot of other owners down as well. He is in the midst of an historic season, but that did not keep him from being done in by the lousy weather and a conservative game plan. Antonio Gates also continues to be a frusterating player to own. He is the best player at his position, but between Philip Rivers and his injuries, he has had as many zero point days as good days in the last two months. So much for my third and fourth round picks.
12/18/07 - Day one of my fantasy website
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12/29/07 - First play in the Giants/Patriots game, Brandon Jacobs goes off the right side for 5 yards, and Eli Manning follows that right up on second down by going play action and throwing over the top to Plaxico Burress, great fake, throw and catch.
On the next play, Steve Smith (USC) lost a ball as he was going down and there is a challenge. Time to give my two cents on instant replay. I don't like it at all. It takes away the excitement of the moment as you wait not only for a call/non-call, but also for a challenge and then the excruciating 2 minute delay while the ref goes "under the hood". There are already too many breaks in play as it is, I am not for anything artificial that adds to this. And the other point is that the refs now seem to make the "easy" call knowing that replay can fix whatever they don't get right. I like the human element in the game and this has somehow nutured the refs ability to manage the game as they used to.
Touchdown Giants on a third down throw to Brandon Jacobs, wow, could this be a game?
12/28/07 - Quick thoughts on playoff bound NFL teams deciding to play starters and try to win, vs sit stars and rest up for the playoffs. I am 100% with Bill Belichick on this subject. He said something interesting the other day when asked if he was going to sit his stars. He said "how do you decide which guys to sit and which guys play? How do you decide who is more important than someone else? That is not the way you build a team." I totally agree. As an athlete, thoughts about possibly getting hurt cannot enter into the thought process. It has to be full speed ahead at all times and confidence is the most important mental edge that a player can take into a game. By sitting guys and not trying to win, the risk of losing the winning edge is much greater than the possibility of someone key getting hurt. I say play to win, even in week 17 with everything wrapped up.
12/27/07 - Fantasy football is probably done for most folks, but there are some leagues that continue playing in week 17. The reason most leagues end in week 16 is the unpredictability of who will play and for how long since most of the games are relatively meaningless. This week, I can see 8 teams out of 32 that legitimitely have something to play for. New England is going for a few records, 16-0, Tom Brady and his 50th TD pass, Randy Moss and his 23rd TD reception. These records should allow most of the Patriots to be usable. New Orleans is still alive for the playoffs, so Brees, Colston (provided health), Patten, and whichever running back starts (Bush, Stecker both questionable) are all in for a solid game, although at Chicago could be a tough place to play for the dome team. Cleveland is playing for a playoff spot, but needs help. They are at home against San Fran so this should be a great matchup for all offensive stars, Anderson, Edwards, Winslow and Lewis. Watch the weather here too, wind/snow could slow the passing game of course. Tennessee is on the flip side of this. They don't play until Sunday night, so if Cleveland happens to lose, they would not have the same motivation. If Cleveland wins, Tennessee will be very motivated against a Colts team that may or may not play all out. This would make Vince Young, Lendale White and possibly a wideout or two, viable starts this week. Washington holds their own destiny in their hands. If they beat Dallas they are in, and Dallas will likely be resting several key guys. The NFL deftly made this game and the Minnesota game at the same time so that the playoff results will be dependent upon each other. Portis has been great the last few weeks, he is a must play. Cooley is the only other sure thing for Washington. Of course, this puts Minnesota in the same boat. I would count on both backs, Peterson and Taylor, as well as Tavaris Jackson to play well at Denver. Pittsburgh and San Diego are playing to avoid Jacksonville and New England in the first two rounds. This is great motivation I am sure. This should lead to all impacting players being available for use in week 17. Watch out for LT and his hamstring though.
Outside of these 8 teams, it will be hard to gauge who will be taking the final games seriously and who will not. For any team already in the playoffs, like Seattle, thier coach may talk a good game about starters going the whole way, but all it takes is one scare or one hit to the QB for them to pull the plug. For teams completely out of the playoffs, will they stick with their lead guys or see what the young unproven players can do? It would be one thing if they say before hand what the exact split will be, but that rarely happens. Watch NFL network all week for any tidbits like this. Good Luck, it will be a crap shoot.
12/26/07 - Well, fantasy football is over for most everyone, including me. I ended up taking second in my office league and third in my money league. I should be more upset about ending up in third place in my money league because the $ are so much more significant for me, but I am not. I had Tom Brady in that league and basically nothing else, so when he laid an egg in week 15, I was toast. In my office league, I went into the playoffs as the #1 seed, having distanced myself from the second place team by more than 100 points and had 300 points more than the #3 seed that I faced in the championship. But in week 16, when it counted, my team put up it's second lowest total of the year. BAD TIMING GUYS. It definitely didn't help that Terrell Owens got hurt, Chad Johnson, Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch played in poor weather and LT came up with a sore hamstring on his way to a monster game. The one guy I had on both teams who was probably the biggest disappointment to me this year, Antonio Gates. He had one catch for 24 yards total in weeks 15 and 16, what the HECK? Oh well, that is the breaks I guess. It was still a fun year and in the big picture, a second and a third is not all that bad. Now some of you will have week 17 action still to come, so let me know if you have any questions on what will happen, I will still be paying close attention. Also, anyone in a keeper league, decisions may be due soon as well. Congratulations to everyone on a great season. Good luck with basketball and baseball.
12/23/07 - Fantasy football is a funny bird. I am winning one fantasy matchup today, but it is the consolation game for 3rd/4th place. I am losing the other matchup which is for the championship. There is much more money on the line in my 3rd place game, but I can't shake the desperation over losing the championship in what is basically a playing for pride league. Football is so tough to figure. One play for a player can make a week and one injury can derail an entire team. Weather is also a huge factor for fantasy playoffs. The blizzard last week in the northeast created Tom Brady's first TDless game. In a season he is setting records, he goes scoreless in the most important fantasy week of the year, week 15. All you can do I guess, is try to run the most probable high scorers out there and hope for good luck, because that is all fantasy football is, luck. How many championships were ruined over injuries to stars like Terrell Owens, Marques Colston, or Willis McGahee. And how many championships were just affected by the 80 yard touchdown pass in garbage time from Troy Smith to Derrick Mason???
12/23/07 - A bit sad that this is the last Sunday of fantasy football for most folks. I am going to enjoy the games today and hope that my teams that are behind will come back and win. I am kind of wary about the "sure things" that look so good today. Jacksonville running against Oakland sounds great and looks perfect on paper. Jax runs the ball well, Oakland has been one of the worst at stopping the run, particularly on the road. Fred Taylor has had 4 straight 100 yard games and looks like a sure bet in this game, but I am wondering if the streak ends today either due to a surprising defensive effort or the affect of the continuous rotation with Jones-Drew. Can you definitively say who will score more points today. Even after Taylor's hot streak, Jones-Drew has more total points this year. Another sure thing looks like the New Orleans passing game, Colston could have a big game, as could Brees and Patten. But Philly took it to Dallas last week and could give the Saints a tough time with man coverage and pressure. Finally, how does everyone feel about Ladanian Tomlinson on Monday night? The Chargers are in the 3 or 4 seed for sure and he sat out half of the last game once they got a lead. Are you confident that LT will get 20 touches this week against Denver???? Good luck, enjoy the games.
12/22/07 - Update to my fantasy matchup this week. I am down 47-0 and I have Terrell Owens going tonight and she has Jason Witten. The last two games, both Cowboy struggles, Witten has gotten the majority of looks and catches. Hopefully TO can turn this around tonight, I need to do some catching up. Prediction tonight Dallas 34 Carolina 13. Owens 110 yards 1TD, Witten 70 yards 1 TD. Hopefully it will be more lopsided to Owens, but I doubt it.
12/21/07 - In every sport, there is one stat that I cannot stomach players being bad at, so I avoid having those type players on my team. In basketball, FT% is the one category I cannot stand to have someone torpedo. So I will never own Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan or Lebron James even until they get above 80%. In baseball, walks by pitchers is the one area that I have a hard time watching one of my guys rack up. Carlos Zambrano is a good example of a quality pitcher I will never own. And in football, red zone interceptions by QB's is the worst trait to have for me. So goodbye Eli Manning.
12/20/07 - Predicted I would be down 49-0 going against 4 pittsburgh players and I am down 47-0, pretty close, even though the distribution was a bit different. I missed on the score as well, I predicted 31-10 and it was 41-24 (21 vs 17 point spread). Pretty good night for the predictions, bad night for my fantasy squad.
12/20/07 - Going against Roethlisberger in both my leagues. I am down 22-2 in one league (I have the Pitt D), and I am down 36-0 in the other league. Dang it I hate when I am right.
12/20/07 - Start of the second quarter and I already have to say "I told you so". The steelers offense is moving up and down the field. Roethlisberger already has well over 100 yards and two TDs. Holmes has quite a few yards and I am getting my butt kicked by a girl. The only surprise is how easily the Rams have countered. What has happened to the Steeler D? They flat out suck.
12/20/07 - My opponent in the championship this week has 4 Pittsburgh players out of the 9 she will be playing. My prediction below would tend to support this decision, I am not optimistic about how the score will look after tonight. She has Roethlisberger (15 points), Ward (14 points), Holmes (12 points) and the Pittsburgh D (8 points). If this prediction is correct, I will be down 49 to nothing.
12/19/07 - The Celtics are struggling at home against the Pistons. The Celtics have enjoyed a very easy schedule so far, with only two games out of the eastern time zone. Is their 20-2 record a complete mirage? Ray Allen missed a few games already with his ankle issues, can the big 3 hold it together? Garnett is an intense competitor, but he is not taking over this game, WHY NOT???
12/19/07 - There are a few people going to the Sonics game tonight. I asked them to take some mental notes and send me their thoughts on what they see and I will post them on the website. Tonight the Sonics host the New Orleans Hornets and Chris Paul. It should be interesting what they think of Kevin Durant and Chris Paul in person. If anyone else goes to a live event and wants to share some thoughts, let me know and I will be happy to post them on this blog.
12/19/07 - Pittsburgh at St Louis tomorrow in the first game of week 16 which is the championship week for most leagues. I am up against most of the Pittsburgh offense in one of my leagues and I am worried that they will be taking out their frustrations over consecutive losses on the Rams. Big Ben, Ward, Holmes, Parker, Reed should all have big games. The defense may even step up on short rest and show the league that they can still make plays. Bulger has almost no protection up front and if Pitt can stop Steven Jackson, they can really come after him and cause some mistakes. Game prediction, Pitt 31 Stl 10.
12/18/07 - This past weekend, Tom Brady cost me a victory in the semi-finals of my football league and I am sure he let alot of other owners down as well. He is in the midst of an historic season, but that did not keep him from being done in by the lousy weather and a conservative game plan. Antonio Gates also continues to be a frusterating player to own. He is the best player at his position, but between Philip Rivers and his injuries, he has had as many zero point days as good days in the last two months. So much for my third and fourth round picks.
12/18/07 - Day one of my fantasy website
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