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A few weeks ago I promised an article about the fantasy stars of 2008 that may not be so obvious. It is pretty
easy to rank the top 10 or 20 guys for every sport and most of them usually work out to be solid contributors, if not stars
for the season. What sets fantasy squads apart are those 8th, 9th, 10th round picks that end up not only being servicable
starters, but fantasy studs. Here is a breakdown of 3 players in basketball (one guard, one forward, one center), baseball
(one hitter, one starter, one reliever) and football (one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver) who you should
shoot for to put your team over the top. I intend these players to go beyond typical "sleeper" status and
be players to key on in your drafts, free agent pools and trades.
Basketball
Let's start with basketball since the season is already almost half over and most fantasy seasons are taking shape. I have mentioned previously that I am a strong believer in protecting your percentages, so you will not see anyone here that shoots below 44% from the floor or 75% from the free throw line. I will also not suggest any player that is not at the very least adequate in the categories expected from the position. (ie. a guard should shoot 3's, have more than 4 assists per and more than 1 steal per)
So here we go. In looking at the guard pool, the player that I am aiming for in my leagues is Richard Hamilton, SG Detroit. He has a fantastic all around game and has been very efficient this year. Hamiltion has upped his shooting percentages and scoring every month this season and for the year is averaging 18 points per game, shooting 50% from the field (on 15 shots) 83% from the line, with 4.5 assists, 1 3pt, 1 steal and less than 2 turnovers. While there are more dramatic shooting guards out there, Hamilton is efficient and probably under appreciated by his owner. I would suggest offering a more high profile shooting guard like Ray Allen or Tracy McGrady in exchange for Richard Hamilton and another solid player, the combination of two solid players in exchange for one star may put you over the top.
At the forward position, this one is easy, Rudy Gay, SF Memphis. In just his second season, Gay has been the main beneficiary of the coaching change to Marc Iavaroni. For the season he is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds and is dang close to being a member of my favorite block, steal, 3 pointer per game club. His percentages are very solid, 47% from the field (and close to 50% the last two months) along with 77% from the line. He is another good scorer who doesn't turn the ball over too much, averaging right at 2 per game. Since he is a youngster who struggled as a rookie and toils in relative anonymity in Memphis, you may be able to get your hands on him for someone more high profile but less well rounded. This guy could be the next Shawn Marion in a couple of years, with more offensive upside.
At Center, I have been trying to get Samuel Dalembert, C Philly all season. He had his first career 20/20 game just this past Friday so it may be too late to make this move, but Samuel is having a huge season. He is shooting well for a big guy 54% and 74%, while averaging a double double, 11 points 10
boards and the key to the deal 2.6 blocks. Typically guys that block that many shots either have no offensive game or kill you at the free throw line. This is the guy that will put your team over the top down low.
So there you have it, try to get your hands on Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay and Samuel Dalembert in exchange for some more high profile, less efficient players and enjoy your championship.
Baseball
I am going to be honest about this one. I enjoy my fantasy baseball league more than any of the other sports, so giving away my "key" guys may come back to bite me. I just have to accept that I will probably not get any of these three players after I post this article, oh well here goes.
As with basketball, I have a few rules that I will not break in recommending baseball players. For hitters, I will not recommend any hitter who does not average 1 walk per 10 at bats. If a hitter is too impatient, he must rely on his batting average on balls in play to be well over 300 every year to maintain a stable average and on base percentage. On top of this impact on his average, it can negatively impact runs and stolen bases from year to year as well. For pitchers, I will not recommend any pitcher who has a strikeout to walk ratio below 2.5. If a guy walks too many hitters, pitch counts become problems which affect wins, and the more base runners the worse the whip obviously, but these guys are also potential runs as well.
Ok, I better not regret this. For your upcoming draft or auction, the hitter I would focus on in the middle rounds would be Kelly Johnson, 2B Atlanta. I missed on this guy last year. I didn't see him coming clearly enough. Johnson has a great history of stable average and on base percentage as well as solid power from a position that lacks power. I see a season that looks similar to Chase Utley's first full season, if you flip the rbi's for runs and expect a few less stolen bases. Something like a 290 average, 380 on base %, 100 runs, 20+ homers. That would be a key pickup in the 10th round, instead of chasing Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler or Rickie Weeks in the 4th or 5th.
The starting pitcher that I would tout to anyone who will listen is James Shields, SP Tampa Bay. Most people outside of fantasy baseball probably have never heard of Shields and many people inside the game are probably unaware just how good he is. How many people would recognize this pitching line for last year:
215 innings 185 strikeouts 36 walks 12 wins 3.86 ERA 1.107 Whip
This was the line that James Shields produced playing for a last place team, in the toughest division in baseball. Now none of that will change in 2008, but Shields should continue to produce solid results regardless. He has one of the best right handed change ups in baseball and pounds the strike zone, as you can tell by the tiny amount of walks. I had Shields last year and enjoyed his consistency and ability to hold down my pitching rotation as pieces were moving all around him. If you can draft Shields in the 12th round, you can go ahead and pass on those high priced starters in the early rounds and pad your offense.
The relief pitcher I am still hoping to have on my staff is Matt Capps, Closer Pittsburgh. This guy is more likely to be a 14th or 15th round closer as most guys shy away from unknown names and closers on crappy teams. Both of these facts should help you land a guy who had 18 saves in just over half a season as closer, while also putting up solid ratios, 2.28 ERA and 1.0 Whip, with a 4 to 1 K/BB rate. This is my kind of closer, cheap, efficient and undervalued.
Football
For football, I will be ignoring the top 7 quarterbacks who will no doubt be Brady, Manning, Romo, Roethlisberger, Anderson, Brees and Palmer, as well as the top 20 RB and WR. I am aiming at guys who will perform like these guys but you can afford to wait on.
At quarterback, I will be targeting if I feel like I can wait this long is Jay Cutler, QB Denver. I completely disagree with the way Mike Shanahan has handled Cutler's career so far. Shanahan inserted the rookie as the starting quarterback on a team that had a winning record through 12 games last year. Denver proceeded to collapse down the stretch while Cutler was learning on the job. So this year was really the year that Cutler should have been getting his education and I believe he got it. Cutler has always had a big arm, which is all anyone talks about on broadcasts of Denver games, but that doesn't always translate into quality quarterback play. The indicator that I see leading to solid performances as he gains more experience is his large home/road splits (102.5 QB rate at home, 72.8 on the road). Young players typically struggle on the road as they learn to deal with a changing routine, hostile crowds, lack of communication ability with the line and receivers etc. As he gains experience, Cutler should start to pick up his play on the road and balance out his performance so that his 20 touchdown season, turns into a 28 or 30 touchdown season (he only had 6 td's on the road, compared to 14 at home). With the weapons at his disposal, an always lethal running game, quality tight end in Steve Scheffler, and big time receivers Marshall, Walker and Stokely, Cutler should have the tools to put up big numbers in the very near future.
Running back is a tough one, simply because most leagues draft heavy on running backs and mid round guys are usually the 25th to 30th ranked players. So I am going to suggest a player who shares a workload with an injury prone partner and could have a prime job at any time. Chester Taylor, RB Minnesota (assuming he stays with the team) is a quality running back stuck behind rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. While Peterson was putting up record numbers for a rookie, Taylor put together a nice season of his own with a 5.4 yard per carry average and 7 td's. This is more TD's than highly ranked players, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Behind the Minnesota offensive line, anyone can have success, all they need is opportunity.
Finally, at Wide Receiver, the guy I want is Dwayne Bowe. Other than holding out, and looking foolish for doing so on HBO's behind the scenes documentary Hard Knocks, Bowe had a solid rookie year. The QB situation is shaky in Kansas City, but other than Tony Gonzales, Bowe is the only threat the team has. With Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard (Who???) throwing him the ball, Bowe put up 70 catches for 995 yards with 5 touchdowns. The coming year should be the coming out party for Bowe, with any improvement in QB play he could be 2008's Braylon Edwards.
Well, that is it, 9 guys I am going to be looking for in 2008 to pair with my stars to bring me a few championships, good luck!
Basketball
Let's start with basketball since the season is already almost half over and most fantasy seasons are taking shape. I have mentioned previously that I am a strong believer in protecting your percentages, so you will not see anyone here that shoots below 44% from the floor or 75% from the free throw line. I will also not suggest any player that is not at the very least adequate in the categories expected from the position. (ie. a guard should shoot 3's, have more than 4 assists per and more than 1 steal per)
So here we go. In looking at the guard pool, the player that I am aiming for in my leagues is Richard Hamilton, SG Detroit. He has a fantastic all around game and has been very efficient this year. Hamiltion has upped his shooting percentages and scoring every month this season and for the year is averaging 18 points per game, shooting 50% from the field (on 15 shots) 83% from the line, with 4.5 assists, 1 3pt, 1 steal and less than 2 turnovers. While there are more dramatic shooting guards out there, Hamilton is efficient and probably under appreciated by his owner. I would suggest offering a more high profile shooting guard like Ray Allen or Tracy McGrady in exchange for Richard Hamilton and another solid player, the combination of two solid players in exchange for one star may put you over the top.
At the forward position, this one is easy, Rudy Gay, SF Memphis. In just his second season, Gay has been the main beneficiary of the coaching change to Marc Iavaroni. For the season he is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds and is dang close to being a member of my favorite block, steal, 3 pointer per game club. His percentages are very solid, 47% from the field (and close to 50% the last two months) along with 77% from the line. He is another good scorer who doesn't turn the ball over too much, averaging right at 2 per game. Since he is a youngster who struggled as a rookie and toils in relative anonymity in Memphis, you may be able to get your hands on him for someone more high profile but less well rounded. This guy could be the next Shawn Marion in a couple of years, with more offensive upside.
At Center, I have been trying to get Samuel Dalembert, C Philly all season. He had his first career 20/20 game just this past Friday so it may be too late to make this move, but Samuel is having a huge season. He is shooting well for a big guy 54% and 74%, while averaging a double double, 11 points 10
boards and the key to the deal 2.6 blocks. Typically guys that block that many shots either have no offensive game or kill you at the free throw line. This is the guy that will put your team over the top down low.
So there you have it, try to get your hands on Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay and Samuel Dalembert in exchange for some more high profile, less efficient players and enjoy your championship.
Baseball
I am going to be honest about this one. I enjoy my fantasy baseball league more than any of the other sports, so giving away my "key" guys may come back to bite me. I just have to accept that I will probably not get any of these three players after I post this article, oh well here goes.
As with basketball, I have a few rules that I will not break in recommending baseball players. For hitters, I will not recommend any hitter who does not average 1 walk per 10 at bats. If a hitter is too impatient, he must rely on his batting average on balls in play to be well over 300 every year to maintain a stable average and on base percentage. On top of this impact on his average, it can negatively impact runs and stolen bases from year to year as well. For pitchers, I will not recommend any pitcher who has a strikeout to walk ratio below 2.5. If a guy walks too many hitters, pitch counts become problems which affect wins, and the more base runners the worse the whip obviously, but these guys are also potential runs as well.
Ok, I better not regret this. For your upcoming draft or auction, the hitter I would focus on in the middle rounds would be Kelly Johnson, 2B Atlanta. I missed on this guy last year. I didn't see him coming clearly enough. Johnson has a great history of stable average and on base percentage as well as solid power from a position that lacks power. I see a season that looks similar to Chase Utley's first full season, if you flip the rbi's for runs and expect a few less stolen bases. Something like a 290 average, 380 on base %, 100 runs, 20+ homers. That would be a key pickup in the 10th round, instead of chasing Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler or Rickie Weeks in the 4th or 5th.
The starting pitcher that I would tout to anyone who will listen is James Shields, SP Tampa Bay. Most people outside of fantasy baseball probably have never heard of Shields and many people inside the game are probably unaware just how good he is. How many people would recognize this pitching line for last year:
215 innings 185 strikeouts 36 walks 12 wins 3.86 ERA 1.107 Whip
This was the line that James Shields produced playing for a last place team, in the toughest division in baseball. Now none of that will change in 2008, but Shields should continue to produce solid results regardless. He has one of the best right handed change ups in baseball and pounds the strike zone, as you can tell by the tiny amount of walks. I had Shields last year and enjoyed his consistency and ability to hold down my pitching rotation as pieces were moving all around him. If you can draft Shields in the 12th round, you can go ahead and pass on those high priced starters in the early rounds and pad your offense.
The relief pitcher I am still hoping to have on my staff is Matt Capps, Closer Pittsburgh. This guy is more likely to be a 14th or 15th round closer as most guys shy away from unknown names and closers on crappy teams. Both of these facts should help you land a guy who had 18 saves in just over half a season as closer, while also putting up solid ratios, 2.28 ERA and 1.0 Whip, with a 4 to 1 K/BB rate. This is my kind of closer, cheap, efficient and undervalued.
Football
For football, I will be ignoring the top 7 quarterbacks who will no doubt be Brady, Manning, Romo, Roethlisberger, Anderson, Brees and Palmer, as well as the top 20 RB and WR. I am aiming at guys who will perform like these guys but you can afford to wait on.
At quarterback, I will be targeting if I feel like I can wait this long is Jay Cutler, QB Denver. I completely disagree with the way Mike Shanahan has handled Cutler's career so far. Shanahan inserted the rookie as the starting quarterback on a team that had a winning record through 12 games last year. Denver proceeded to collapse down the stretch while Cutler was learning on the job. So this year was really the year that Cutler should have been getting his education and I believe he got it. Cutler has always had a big arm, which is all anyone talks about on broadcasts of Denver games, but that doesn't always translate into quality quarterback play. The indicator that I see leading to solid performances as he gains more experience is his large home/road splits (102.5 QB rate at home, 72.8 on the road). Young players typically struggle on the road as they learn to deal with a changing routine, hostile crowds, lack of communication ability with the line and receivers etc. As he gains experience, Cutler should start to pick up his play on the road and balance out his performance so that his 20 touchdown season, turns into a 28 or 30 touchdown season (he only had 6 td's on the road, compared to 14 at home). With the weapons at his disposal, an always lethal running game, quality tight end in Steve Scheffler, and big time receivers Marshall, Walker and Stokely, Cutler should have the tools to put up big numbers in the very near future.
Running back is a tough one, simply because most leagues draft heavy on running backs and mid round guys are usually the 25th to 30th ranked players. So I am going to suggest a player who shares a workload with an injury prone partner and could have a prime job at any time. Chester Taylor, RB Minnesota (assuming he stays with the team) is a quality running back stuck behind rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. While Peterson was putting up record numbers for a rookie, Taylor put together a nice season of his own with a 5.4 yard per carry average and 7 td's. This is more TD's than highly ranked players, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson, Reggie Bush, Fred Taylor, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson. Behind the Minnesota offensive line, anyone can have success, all they need is opportunity.
Finally, at Wide Receiver, the guy I want is Dwayne Bowe. Other than holding out, and looking foolish for doing so on HBO's behind the scenes documentary Hard Knocks, Bowe had a solid rookie year. The QB situation is shaky in Kansas City, but other than Tony Gonzales, Bowe is the only threat the team has. With Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard (Who???) throwing him the ball, Bowe put up 70 catches for 995 yards with 5 touchdowns. The coming year should be the coming out party for Bowe, with any improvement in QB play he could be 2008's Braylon Edwards.
Well, that is it, 9 guys I am going to be looking for in 2008 to pair with my stars to bring me a few championships, good luck!
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