I was able to catch parts of about half a dozen games and here are some highlights of guys that look better/worse than I thought they would be.  I was at the Seahawks/Bears game Saturday night and unlike New York where the Favre debut barely half filled the Meadowlands, Qwest field was packed and very loud which is a great sign for another solid home season for the Hawks. 

Matt Forte- RB Chicago looks pretty good.  Chicago might be able to run the ball a little bit even with thier crappy QB situation.  Forte runs quick and strong and appears to be the clear starter.  He is in a good spot on my ranking list.

Justin Forcett - RB Seattle looks better than pretty good!  This 7th round pick out of Cal is going to make the Seattle roster, probably return punts and kicks to start with and could be the 3rd down back with Morris/Jones splitting time as the starters.  If they get creative with the injuries to the wide receivers, he could possibly play slot back too.  Not draftable just yet, but keep an eye on him, he could turn into a smaller version of Maurice Jones-Drew and pile up 5 td's or so this year.

Chicago passing game - stay completely away from it, whatever the QB situation is, doesn't matter, they can't pass block very well (although everyone struggles in Qwest field) and they have 0 real wideouts.

Calvin Johnson - WR Detroit could possibly supplant Roy Williams as the #1 guy in Detroit.  3 catches for 76 yards and a TD in one drive with Jon Kitna under center on Sunday.  Really didn't look like the defense could cover him with his combination of size and speed.  I am moving him up 5 spots or so.

Santonio Holmes - WR Pittsburgh, I really like this guy, he is already higher on my list than some I see, but I feel much better about that every game that goes by.  He has TD's in both preseason games and continues to get open deep and make strong catches on the jump balls.

Matt Schaub - QB Houston looks like he wants to be in the top 10 at the position this year.  14-16 and 2 td's this weekend without his top guy Andre Johnson.  Kevin Walter was the main guy 6-100, td and he could also be a sleeper to keep an eye on. 

Brandon Marshall - WR Denver It is really too bad that this guy is suspended for 2 games, hard to gauge how much of a problem that will be for teams that want to draft him.  He has a great link with Jay Cutler and is by far the best offensive player on the team.  I am not sure what to do with him, 2 games plus a bye means he misses 25% of the 13 weeks that make up the regular season for most fantasy leagues, will his production the rest of the time make up for it?  Where should he fall relative to guys like Marvin Harrison, Laveraneous Coles, Joey Galloway who will be there from the start but have less talent and/or injury risks? 

Laurence Maroney - RB New England is not going to be worth much this year.  It is obvious that the pattern the Patriots have taken the last few years is to use the RB committee most of the year and save Maroney for the playoffs.  Worked great last year as he was a beast when it mattered most.  But with Sammy Morris, Lamont Jordan and Kevin Faulk, they don't need him to carry it more than 12-15 times per game and can let Morris/Jordan bang for the tough short yards and goal line carries.  Major warning here...ok if you can get him in the 6th round or so, but you probably won't be able to..

Larry Johnson - RB Kansas City carried the ball 14 times on Saturday, WHY???  For crying out loud don't use this guy up, even after missing time the last two years he is in the top 3 in the NFL in total touches the past 3 seasons, save him for when it counts please!

Here is a list of players who either have a holdout, an injury to themselves or an in jury to another key member of their team that will negatively affect their draft status.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams, - Contract holdouts are simply a bad idea for players.  I understand the need to get paid, but from a performance perspective, missing practice time opens you up to injury risk that is not there if you are conditioning your body to contact and the pounding of the game.  I am sure Jackson is working out and staying in shape, but the first time he has to be explosive or deal with contact, it is a different impact on the body.  Going from nothing, to serious competition is a big time risk.  I used the example of Jamal Anderson in my mock draft in relation to Jackson, but a more recent example is Larry Johnson last year.  He held out, never really got going and ended up getting hurt.  Can you link the hold out and the injury directly, maybe not, but it is definintely an added risk that you can avoid on draft day.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers - Grant is dealing with a contract situation and a hamstring injury, same holds true for him as it does for Steven Jackson.  Even worse in that he has only 1/2 season under his belt performing at a high level.

Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens - Having knee surgery during training camp can't be good.  No timing, no practice, no conditioning.  The chances he plays up to his second round draft spot is very low.  Ray Rice is a nice backup the Ravens drafted just in case too...

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans - This guy is very productive when he plays and has a great chemistry with Matt Schaub, the Texans young QB.  But every year he ends up with some kind of leg injury.  Hamstring, knee, calf, he has had them all the last three years and is already dealing with a Hamstring in preseason.  Some guys just never stay healthy and this guy is hard to count on.  Guys in the same area for draft value that are more reliable are Holt, Roy Williams and Plaxico Burress.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks - Hasselbeck is dealing with his own back injury which has kept him out of both preseason games, but the issues that worry me more than his back are the shoulder injury to Bobby Engram, the knee injury to Deion Branch and the complete lack of experience in the rest of the receiving core.  Seattle better sign a veteran before camp is over, Burleson is not a #1 WR and cannot be counted on to carry the passing game while the veterans get healthy and the kids learn what the heck to do. 

I will likely not be drafting any of these guys or the guys around them...

Other guys who are injured that I am not worried about include Peyton Manning, McNabb, Tomlinson, Bush, Houshmandzadeh, Burress, Boldin, Harrison, Holt.   

On Monday, I will be posting a list of guys that I am officially worried about going into the season.  Whether it be hold outs, or injuries or other team issues, I will document a complete list of guys with extra risk associated with them going into the season. 

I had a conversation with a buddy last night about what to do with his 10th overall pick.  On my first round mock I have Terrell Owens in this spot and his response was that doesn't sound all that appetizing taking TO there.  I get that, and no doubt like/dislike of a player should factor into your decision making.  You have to enjoy watching your guys as much as you can, this is a game after all.  You also have to take into account your league scoring rules, how many teams are in your league and the tendencies of your league mates (if you know them).  In his case, he plays in a 12 team league and not a 10 team league which differs from my mock picks going on.  This is key because he has to assess 3 things when making his first two picks which will shape his draft entirely.  First, how important is it to fill the rb positions in relation to the number of starters required for your league.  If he has 12 teams and each team is required to start 2 RB's, that is 24 guys out of 32 starting jobs in the league.  If they also have a flex position which is usually filled with a RB, then the number moves to 36 possibly.  In this case, RB will be very scarce and maybe it tips the scales for his first pick from Owens to Lynch.  Second, he has to weigh what the two owners behind him will do.  Will they both go RB-RB?  Will they mix it up?  How certain is he to get one of the second tier running backs with his second pick?  If you don't know at all, you may be better off going running back just to be safe if the position is scarce overall.  And Third, he must decide whether or not he feels that simply picking the "surest" bet is the way to go in the first two round, in which case I would say he may be going Owens and another  WR or the next QB as once you get past Lynch, Portis, Jones Drew and maybe LJ, every running back is a total crapshoot.  Being at the back end of the draft is a very tough place to be, glad I am not there this year...  One note though, my first ever fantasy championship in 1997 I selected WR in the first two rounds (Jerry Rice and Cris Carter) so it is possible to win and not have a RB in the first two rounds.  I did get lucky with a career year from Terry Allen and the emergence of Terrell Davis.  But it can happen.

Just a note, I will not be ranking tight ends, kickers or defenses.  You should always wait to draft a kicker until the last round, period.  And I think the best way to manage your defense is to wait until the second to last round and pick a defense that is still on the board and has a favorable matchup, particularly against a young quarterback prone to making mistakes and turnovers.  Then you can rotate your defense every week if necessary as the matchups dictate.  As for tight ends, this year I don't see much separation between the best guy (Gates) and the 8th, 9th and 10th best guys, so fill out your starters at every other positon, maybe grab a little running back depth and then take whichever tight end is left, probably someone like Heath Miller or Alge Crumpler who will do just fine this year.  Don't overpay for Gates, Witten or Gonzales. 

It is time to get back into the world of fantasy football.  I am sure most people will hold their drafts sometime between August 23rd and September 3rd, which is the window between the 3rd preseason game and the day before opening kickoff.  This is definitely the best time to have your draft in order to maximize the information you have about who will play, who looks good and who does not.  It also minimizes the chance for major injury to a key player after you have drafted him.  I remember the most disappointed I have ever been after a draft was in 1999, when I thought I had the #1 sleeper in the league when I picked Trent Green who was taking the reins for the "greatest show on turf", the St. Louis Rams.  He had his knee blown up that night by Rodney Harrison during the 3rd preseason game and my QB situation was a problem all of a sudden.  Damn, I have always hated Harrison for that!  So the point is, try your best to hold your draft after these games are played so you can avoid that pain...

I will be putting up my rankings for the 2008 season shortly.  As always, rankings are nice, but it is impossible to make a ranking list that is perfect for every scoring system, so remember to just shoot me a question if you want to know how to look at any particular decision in your league...

It has been 3 weeks since the last posting.  This was due to 3 big events.  First, my mom's ongoing battle with Pancreatic cancer is tough.  Second, my wife and daughter spent 2 weeks in Japan which should have led to more time online, but instead led to more time figuring out how to take care of myself.  Third, my own baseball draft took place over the first week of March and it was impossible to focus on anything else while I built my team.  I will focus this posting on my own draft results.  I will also post my league's results on the site.  (Take it with a grain of salt though since we are in a long term keeper league with specific rules that change how the draft results look since 60 players are kept in the round they were originally drafted historically ie. Hanley Ramirez is a 21st round draft pick and Prince Fielder is a 16th rounder.)

Here is my team in order of selection with a quick thought on each player.

Keepers =
C - Brian McCann ATL (round 21) - having a top 5 catcher with this late of a draft price is a no brainer
1B - Prince Fielder MIL (Round 16) - even at the deepest position, he is a sure keeper with his 50 homers at age 23
SS - Jimmy Rollins PHI (Round 3) - I knew if I didn't keep Rollins I wouldn't get him back (I had the last pick in the first round since I won the league the year before)
3B - Ryan Braun MIL (Round 22) - I traded Arod straight up for Braun for a few reasons, #1 I hate Arod and the Yankees and #2 Braun has the potential to be a decent substitute for a 20 round discount
SP - Dan Haren ARI (Round 7) - I think Haren will be a great strikeout pitcher now that he is in the national league

In addition to these picks I have forfeited to keep these players, I don't have picks in round 6 or 8 due to trades made last season to acquire players to help with my playoff push. (Dice K stunk which wasted my 6th rounder, but King Felix was well worth the 8th rounder)  Here is the rest of my draft.

1 - RF - Nick Markakis BAL- We split our outfield by LF/CF/RF so it adds a layer of complexity to building the team which is fun.  Markakis is a great RF who is a 30/30 candidate as soon as this year.  The worse the Orioles are, the more he may run.
2 - 3B - Garrett Atkins COL- I actually made this pick to fill my LF position since Ryan Braun is moving there to start the season and will have eligibility by week 3.  Atkins was the most well rounded hitter left and other than a 2 month dry spell to begin '07, Atkins has hit over 320 for the other 10 months the last two years.  Likely line of .315 100 30 100 is what I see.
3 - Rollins
4 - CF - Hunter Pence HOU - I seriously thought about taking Pence in the second round, but I gambled that he would make it back to me and I won.  The only downside to Pence is his spot in the batting order.  With the acquisition of Kaz Matsui, Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada to go with Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, Pence should spend most of the season in the 6 hole which will cost him about 100 plate appearances compared to the 2 hole he hit in last year. 
5 - SP - James Shields TBY - I had a tough choice here between Nick Swisher (who would fill my utility spot) or Shields.  With Haren my only pitcher at the time, and not having picks in round 6-8, if I had passed on Shields my pitching staff would have been seriously compromised.  Shields is also great in K/BB my favorite stat.  This gamble paid off later too, when I picked Jim Thome in round 11 to be my utility player.
6 - 8 No picks (OUCH) Players I missed out on that I wanted.  Kelly Johnson, Javier Vazquez, and Joba Chamberlain
9 - SP - Ted Lilly CHC - All the projections I see on Lilly have him reverting back to the numbers he had in the A.L.  Lilly is a great buy because he is in the national league to stay and his numbers should be solid.
10 - 2B - Howie Kendrick LAA - Plus Plus Average is his big ability and has the potential for double digit homers and steals.  Sure would prefer he replaced Matthews Jr as the 2 hole hitter. Hard to produce consistently in the 7 hole.  In this keeper league he should be a good option for a keeper next year.
10 - 3B - Evan Longoria TBY - This pick was an extra I picked up in a trade and what better time to take a gamble on the best prospect of 2008?  Longoria has minor league numbers almost exactly the same as Ryan Braun.  Here is hoping he is more Braun than Gordon.
11 - U - Jim Thome CHW - Perfect Utility player, solid power numbers and safe average and obp.
12 - RP - Matt Capps PIT - I targeted this guy prior to the draft, I really like undervalued closers on bad teams that put up stellar ratios.  Capps is exactly what I am looking for. 
13 - RP - Joakim Soria KC - See Capps explanation! We start 3 RP's so I am looking good at closer for a cheap price.
14 - SP - Dustin McGowan TOR - This guy could go either way, build on his strong 2007 or regress.  All depends on how his control numbers go, he walks more than 75 and I will be cutting him, he improves there and he is a steal due to his strong K rates and solid offensive support.
15 - LF - Raul Ibanez SEA - Since Braun won't be LF eligible until week 3, I needed a solid fill in for the first two weeks.  Ibanez has an easy schedule to start the season and will be a solid bench guy I can count on if injuries hit Braun, Atkins or Thome.
16 - Fielder
17 - RP - Rafael Betancourt CLE - There is NO WAY Borowski survives as closer again this year, he is terrible.  Betancourt is lights out, just ask the Red Sox who they would rather face. 
18 - LF/CF - Cameron Maybin FLA - Being in a keeper league, once I have filled my starting spots, which I have now, it is all about young keeper prospects and young veterans who could break out due to certain factors.  Maybin has the best K/BB rate of any of the young hitters.  Should be a great source for steals right off.
19 - CF - Lastings Milledge WAS - Big breakout candidate with move to Washington, hitting second and starting every day in center. 
20 - 2B - Freddy Sanchez PIT - Only regret of the draft, should have taken Aaron Hill here.
21 - McCann
22 - Braun
23 - RF - Austin Kearns WAS - Home/Road splits were brutal, move to new home park should be huge benefit
24 - CF - Jay Bruce CIN - Only roadblock here is Dusty Baker and his love affair with Corey Patterson and his .295 OBP.  What idiot of a manager thinks speed is the only skill needed in a leadoff hitter?  The dude needs to be on base to use the speed and Patterson STINKS.
25 - 1B - Conor Jackson ARI - Power developing to go with fantastic approach at the plate.  Hitting 3rd in young lineup doesn't hurt.
26 - SP - Mike Mussina NYY - Hoping injuries were the cause for '07 crap.  I will always let pitching wait because I am confident that I can pick up solid starters as the season goes on.
27 - SP - Luke Hochevar KC - Chance to make rotation and solid ratios, taking a chance and could easily drop him before season starts.
28 - LF - Jason Kubel MIN - Mr. Irrelevant.  Already dropped him for Spring Training K leader Edinson Volquez.  Jump on this kid, looks very good.  Just set down the Phillies A team for no runs.

All in All, I am really enjoying my draft and team.  I am solid, young and full of potential backed up by just enough solid steady veterans. 

What is slugging percentage?  The formula is pretty simple, it is Total Bases / At Bats.  So if you get a single, which is one base obviously, then your slugging percentage is 1.000, one base, one at bat.  If you get out in your next at bat, you have a slugging percentage of .500 now, one base, two at bats.  Pretty simple.  Now, typically the elite sluggers in baseball have a slugging percentage of .600 or better.  How many players reached this milestone last year?  The answer is 7.

1 - Arod .645
2 - Ryan Braun - .634
3 - Carlos Pena - .627
4 - David Ortiz - .621
5 - Prince Fielder - .618
6 - Matt Holliday - .607
7 - Chipper Jones - .604

When I look at these numbers, Arod and Ortiz are the only two that don't raise eyebrows right off the top.  They are both bigtime sluggers and they hit over .300 for their batting averages, which cuts down on the overall number of extra base hits you need to make up the extra bases to get you to a .600 slugging average.  See, to have a .600 slugging percentage, if you have a batting average that exactly equals .300, that means you have to average a double everytime you get a hit.  If you hit lower than .300 you have to average more than a double, and if you hit higher than .300 you can average less than a double.  So for guys above like Pena and Fielder who have not hit .300 before in thier careers, it is surprising that they are on this list, but with the seasons they had (Fielder 50 homers and Pena 47 homers) it is no wonder.  Then the two guys who are not typically considered sluggers, Holliday and Jones, who reached this milestone.  This was due mainly to their plus .330 batting averages that lowered their extra base hits required to make it to .600 slugging.  Then there is Ryan Braun.  A Rookie who came out of nowhere to put up the second best slugging % in the major leagues.  How did he do it?  Easy, all he had to do, was have a .516 batting average against left handed pitching, and a slugging percentage of .964 (111 at bats).  This outrageous number lifted his more realisting splits against right handed pitchers (.319/.526) to the upper echelon of sluggers.  I have Braun on both of my keeper leagues and as much as I like these numbers, it is highly unlikely that he duplicates them, and a full season of .550 slugging, while still very good, is in his future.

How many outfielders hit 30 or more Home Runs in 2007? 

Dunn - 40
Holliday - 36
Berkman - 34
Beltran - 33
Soriano - 33
Chris Young - 32
Carlos Lee - 32
Griffey - 30
Burrell - 30

9 - That's it.  What does this mean?  To me, it means that you can fill your outfield with more well rounded outfielders, or outfielders that hit for high average or have big speed and not lose too much in the power categories.  You can focus your power production at your corner infield spots and wait on outfielders til later in the draft.  I don't see this number changing much this year, Manny Ramirez and Grady Sizemore may climb up to this level, but I doubt Griffey and Burrell stay here. 

Who am I?

1989 - 208 IP, 168K, 12W, 11L, 2.50 ERC (Adjusted earned run average)
1990 - 231 IP, 170K, 14W, 11L, 3.37 ERC
1991 - 229 IP, 148K, 14W, 13L, 3.15 ERC
1992 - 246 IP, 215K, 15W, 12L, 2.73 ERC
1993 - 243 IP, 208K, 15W, 11L, 3.29 ERC
1994 - 134 IP, 113K, 6W, 10L, 3.44 ERC
1995 - 192 IP, 193K, 12W, 7L, 3.08 ERC
1996 - 253 IP, 276K, 24W, 8L, 2.17 ERC
1997 - 256 IP, 241K, 15W, 12L, 2.89 ERC
1998 - 167 IP, 173K, 17W, 3L, 2.67 ERC
1999 - 186 IP, 156K, 11W, 8L, 2.81 ERC
2000 - DNP Elbow
2001 - 59 IP, 57K, 10/11 Saves, 2.85 ERC
2002 - 80 IP, 85K, 55/59 Saves, 2.06 ERC
2003 - 64 IP, 73K, 45/49 Saves, 1.50 ERC
2004 - 81 IP, 85K. 44/49 Saves, 2.73 ERC
2005 - 229 IP, 169K, 14W, 7L, 2.83 ERC
2006 - 232 IP, 211K, 16W, 9L, 3.32 ERC
2007 - 205 IP, 197K, 14W, 8L, 3.07 ERC

Sounds like someone I want on my fantasy team.  This pitcher has never had an ERA over 3.85 in his career outside of 1994 when he was injured.  His wins and K's have been very consistent and his innings pitched have been steady as well.  His career Whip is 1.17.  Who am I?

John Smoltz - Atlanta Braves