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Durant can get his shot over anyone.
Shallow thoughts...
3/17/08 - I am in big trouble in my fantasy basketball league. I am currently in 3rd place, but I haven't
won a week against a team currently in the playoff race in over a month. Caron Butler's injury is killing me and
even though he is back, he looks like a shell of himself offensively. He needs to get it back by next week. If
the standings hold, I have a playoff date with a team that has Lebron James, Dwight Howard and Marcus Camby. Which basically
means I have no shot at points, rebounds or blocks. I am going to have to find a way to win 5 other categories and it
will be tough with my depleted roster. I am counting on two rookies which is dicey. Kevin Durant and Al Horford
have been decent, but inconsistent. I also need to hope the Celtics don't pack it in too early and rest Paul Pierce
for the actual playoff run. I see myself going one and done in the playoffs if I don't change my seeding.
I need to make up 3 games this week to get the #2 seed and a bye, that would help.
By the way, the Sonics, Heat, Grizzlies and Timberwolves are all shooting for the worst records so they have a shot at the two best college players this year, Michael Beasly and Derrick Rose. I hope the Sonics get Rose, he is a better compliment to Durant than another scoring forward in Beasley.
2/28/08 - Here is a good tip, DO NOT rely on rookies in fantasy basketball. For one, they are going to be inconsistent, and two once they hit the halfway point in the season they become almost useless. The college season is 35-40 games long, once the all star break is over, rookies are running on fumes. I have Kevin Durant, Al Horford, and Jeff Green on my roster. They have all been incosistent this entire season with Durant shooting like garbage most of the time, Horford looking like a blinking light on one game totally off the next and Jeff Green looking like a total bust as the only remaining piece the Sonics received for Ray Allen. I knew going in that Durant would not shoot a high percentage, but he has been in the 20's half the time (4-17 last night, yikes!). I really thought Horford would be consistent at least with rebounds and blocks and he has not been at all. In the last 4 weeks, I have alternated playing him and benching him and when I played him he stunk, and when I benched him he was awesome (loved seeing his 14 points and 14 boards last night on my bench).
I have also been watching the updates on Caron Butler on a daily basis and finally today it was revealed that he has a tear in the hip labrum which sounds pretty bad. I may not get him back before the end of the season, which will likely sink my ship. I really need his assists and steals at the SF position as well as the solid numbers everywhere else. I have been plugging in Josh Childress and Al Thorton (another rookie) in his place, but I have been losing steals and assists without him. I have been looking at picking up Mike Conley who has SG eligibility to replace the assists and steals and moving Pierce to SF, but this will weaken me in FG%, Points and Turnovers compared to Childress and Thorton. I don't really have a good solution for this loss, but you never know.
2/23/08 - My trade of Steve Nash for Caron Butler is not working out so well. Butler has been injured for all of February and by trading Nash, I gave up my one sure advantage in Assists. Obviously I could not forsee the injury situation, but by attempting to flatten out my stat coverage (Butler is better in points, rebounds, steals and turnovers) I gave up my big advantage in assists and FG% with Nash and now I am fighting it out in some of these categories every week which has made my team more inconsistent than it was before. Hard to fully evaluate this deal with Butler hurt, but will be interesting once he comes back if my team becomes more successful.
Could the Sonics go any lower? I know they beat Portland last night, but the Blazers are a terrible road team for whatever reason. Seattle has basically 3 players that would be a part of a truly successful team. Durant and Green are rookies that should continue to develop and Nick Collison is a great big man off the bench for any team. Other than that, this roster is completely devoid of useful parts. Watson, Wilcox, Ridnour, and the triumverate of crappy centers (Petro, Swift, Sene) are all basically spare parts. It is obvious that this ownership group is clearing the decks for a fresh start once they move the team to Oklahoma City. I can see them leaving Seattle with Durant, Green and $40M of cap space to start over. Sam Presti has done as a good job of setting the team up for a rebuilding effort if that is what he has been directed to do, but doesn't do much for the fans of the team now. Hard to watch and if it wasn't for the fact that Durant is so interesting to watch develop, there would be no reason to at all.
2/18/08 - The all-star game is a joke. Nobody is trying at all on defense, the passing is riduculous and it often breaks down into a lob fest in an attempt to get the "alley-oop" of the day. Stupid and not good for basketball overall. I don't want kids that I will be coaching to see that showboating crap from the best players in the world, I want to see teamwork, great passing, great shooting and some defense, is that really too much to ask? No wonder our olympic teams get their butts kicked, our stars think a fancy between the legs dribble, crossover, step back 22 footer, one on five is a good shot. Blach!
OK, enough about that. Now back to fantasy...
It has been a few weeks since I blogged on this subject and it has honestly been due to the doldrums of the worst sports month of the year, the month in between football and baseball. I had an interesting last fantasy week prior to the all star break. It was a short week, so most every team had 2 games ( a few only had 1) and I was going against a team with Dwight Howard and Marcus Camby. I have played this team once before and with these two guys, I have no chance to win rebounds or blocks. So in an effort to try to win the other categories, and sacrifice boards and blocks, I benched Tyson Chandler and Al Horford and replace them with a surging Andrea Bargnani along with Sam Cassell (I shifted guys down a position where I had position flexibility). I figured with the two guys I played, I would have more 3's, assists, points and steals and because Horford has been shooting poorly, my FG% might be even. I thought I had a good chance to win 6-3 or 5-4. Well as the week went on it was obvious I made a mistake and not for the obvious reasons. Horford and Chandler combined for 62 rebounds in their 4 games, but I would have still lost rebounds by 10 due in part to the 24 rebound game that Howard put up. So I calculated that correctly as well as blocks, which I lost 18-4 (Camby had a 7 block game). I knew I was going to lose those categories, but I didn't plan on losing steals, turnovers and my hope for FG% didn't work out either. Chander would have made the difference in steals and FG% as I lost steals by 1 and FG% by .005 and he had a 3 steal game and a solid FG% for the week, while Bargnani did make 3 from beyond the arc, he only had 1 steal and shot 40%. I made a calculated gamble and it didn't pay off, even though the reason I did it was sound and half of it worked out as I thought it would. Here is the lesson learned, play your best players, regardless of the matchup problems and hope that it works out. Trying to matchup by category is never going to work out as you think.
2/7/08 - What is the deal with so many players in the NBA missing games with the Flu? I don't know if I am just noticing it more this year or if there actually is some epidemic here, but in the last two weeks I have missed substantial time from guys like Corey Magettee, Tyson Chandler, Andrei Kirilenko, all for the flu. You would think that elite athletes would take care of themselves as much as possible and that the teams would go to great lenghts to avoid these types of things. Have the ever heard of Vitamin C????
Fun game in Phoenix last night too. How do you not enjoy a 132-130 double OT game? With the news of the Shaq/Marion trade there was probably even more focus on this game to start with. Then the actual fun started with being able to watch the two best point guards in the game go at it. Chris Paul and Steve Nash both had great games (if you ignore the 10 turnovers for Nash, yuck!). Boris Diaw was the beneficiary of the Marion trade last night playing 36 minutes and scoring an economical 22 points. I think that during the regular season, Shaq will have a limited role and that Diaw will continue to put up big numbers. Think back to two seasons ago when Stoudamire was out, Diaw was awesome and I think he could get back to that with an increased role. The Shaq effect won't really be seen until the playoffs when the Suns need some toughness on D and a presence in the half court offense. It is hard to picture Shaq running with the Suns, but they may be able to specialize his role enough that he can be the shot blocker/rebounder to ignite the break, then only get involved in the offense when they get slowed down. This is all pending his health status, he seriously needs to get in shape now. As for Marion, he will opt out and sign with Memphis or Toronto most likely. I still don't understand his problem, guess some athletes are so selfish that they cannot see the greatness of thier situation until they are gone. Ask Joe Johnson how it is to be a big fish in a small pond Shawn! Idiot.
1/18/08 - Quick thought... I traded Steve Nash for Caron Butler.... It is hard to judge a trade in one week, but I am losing the deal so far. Nash has had a 35 point game and a 20 assist game since the trade was complete. And Butler has not been shooting well since the deal and has not made a single three during that time either. I had assists to give, but not FG % and 3PM so if Butler doesn't come back to his season averages in these areas, I am in trouble with this deal.
1/14/08 - Been a few days since I watched any hoops. NFL playoffs took center stage over the weekend. Back into it now with a few games the last couple of days. Observations....
First, Josh Childress is very underappreciated. He has shot over 60 percent the last two weeks and simply does not hurt your fantasy team. I plug him in at guard or forward depending on my matchups and watch his percentages, decent scoring and rebounding go along with a steal here and a block there for some quality contributions. If he is free pick him up, if you own him, play him.
Second, I recently traded Steve Nash for Caron Butler in a simple one for one deal. I had Chris Paul and Steve Nash, and I was winning assists by so much every week, having both was a bit of a waste. I needed more points and steals, while not giving up any in the percentage categories. Butler fits perfectly.
Third, I am watching Kevin Durant go up against Kobe Bryant and Kobe is really kicking his tail. Rookie is shooting terribly against the Lakers and he took a terrible shot at the end of regulation. But that was on the possession after he tied up the game with an icy three ball, so take the good with the bad. Once again I must hit on his one weak spot, rebounding. He is 6'10" and has one rebound tonight. He doesn't even try to rebound. I have no idea what the coaches say to him, but it must be something like, "Kevin, stay as far away from the ball as possible, we don't want you getting hurt in a rebound scrum". This needs to change.
Fourth, it looks like I was wrong about Jeff Green. I think he still belongs in a reserve role. Playing along side Durant, he has looked more hesitant and takes wild shot after wild shot. And the strength of his game, rebounding and defense has not been as steady either. This needs to be done asap, before he really loses his confidence.
1/8/08 - I would like to examine for a minute the benefit of having a player in a position, power forward for example, who doesn't bring the typical skills for that position, but adds something that most other players don't. This week I had the lineup choice between Sean Williams (rookie PF for New Jersey) or Andres Nocioni (SF/PF for Chicago starting for Luol Deng). Sean Williams brings the typical PF skill set to the position, strong FG%, Rebounds and Blocks. Nocioni brings the very unique skill of 3 point shooting to the PF position. Thier points, assists, steals and turnovers are very similar. So is it more important to stick with the standard categories for the position or try to get something unique? Let's look at how this should play out: Assume both players play 3 games
Williams -
FG% 55 FT% 65 3's 0 Pts 21 Rebs 16 Asst 2 Stl 2 Blk 6 TO 4
Nocioni
FG% 40 FT% 70 3's 6 Pts 40 Rebs 15 Asst 4 Stl 2 Blk 2 TO 6
So the difference is really FG% and Blks compared to 3 pointers. So which direction should you go? Williams may be a special case here with his extra high block numbers, but Nocioni is equally as talented behind the three point line. The extra 3's could very likely win you that category, as could the extra 4 blocks, so that could be a wash. My opinion is that FG% is the most important stat to protect, especially at the positions that should typically provide solid numbers there. Assume you have 4 guards that all shoot under 45%, if you add a "big" that does as well, it will be very hard to get your shooting above that level for the week. Typically in my experience 47% or higher is usually the winning number (you can win lower but it is lucky). I would much prefer to take the boring, typical stats of the PF position than go for the extra 3's I could get from a player like Nocioni. Now if you have a couple of guards like Steve Nash and Tony Parker who shoot a high percentage and together may not provide the three point shooting you need, maybe you consider this, but I would encourage you to get your 3's from the guards and forwards and get your %'s, rebounds and blocks from your big guys.
1/4/08 - I am enjoying the season, maybe the final season, of Sonics basketball. This is due entirely to the arrival of Kevin Durant. He alone has made the Sonics interesting to watch. Here is some background information on his season so far.
Durant has scored in double figures in all but 3 games that he has played (and one of those he left in the first quarter with an injured finger)
Durant is averaging 20 points per game on 17 shots, while shooting 41% from the field and 86% from the line. A good comparable is Paul Pierce, averaging 21 points per game on 15.5 shots.
Durant is one of 7 or 8 players in the league averaging 1 block, 1 steal and 1 3pointer per game.
Now these facts all support the hype that he had coming out of college, but it does not completely tell the story about how he is doing it. He has been forced to be the #1 option on a team devoid of stars, with no real #2 scoring threat. He has done it playing the off guard position, which he has never played before. He is doing it without a point guard to set him up for easy looks.
Durant has gotten most of his opportunities in three ways, taking a man off the dribble, shooting jump shots which have usually been contested, and getting out on the break. His versatility in how he can score is amazing. He shows no hesitation in his shot selection and can get by quicker defenders with his long stride and finish with either hand. Once he gains some strength, the NBA 3 pointer will get easier and he will be able to hold his own around the rim with more authority. His negatives have been limited to rebounding and defense. His defense has been limited to the occasional pilfering of a passing lane and the helpside block and he has been almost non-existent on the boards as well.
On Thursday night against Phoenix, the Sonics, behind 12 4th quarter points from Durant, cut the Suns lead to 4 with 2 minutes remaining. This is "winning" time and on consecutive possessions, Durant turned the ball over. On both occasions, he looked a bit weak and tired, probably from carrying his team back into the game. As he matures, this will not happen and he will likely start taking over games the way the great scorers do. I can't wait for the moments like this to arrive, just hope it will be in Seattle and not on the NBA ticket live via Oklahoma....
1/2/08 - Today has been a frustrating day for my fantasy basketball team. I have built my team with a concentration on FG%, FT%, 3's, Assists and Steals. I should have an advantage in these 5 categories most weeks and be solid enough to win points/turnovers once in a while (I never win rebounds or blocks). But even the best laid plans can go awry. A team that has 3 90% FT shooters, 4 guys at 80% and 3 guys at 65% is shooting 40% from the line so far this week. A team with 6 guys averaging 1 3/game or more has 6 3's total. Put that together with my opponent's 55% from the field and 3 of my core categories are on the losing end. I guess everyone will have weeks like this from time to time, doesn't make it any less frustrating.
1/1/08 - The NBA is taking the day off on New Year's to make way for the college football bonanza, but here are a few thoughts on the Monday games. Fantasy highlights by players under the radar:
Jamario Moon F Toronto- 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals, great hustle contribution.
Jose Calderon PG Toronto- 17 points, 12 assists, doing great in the absence of TJ Ford
Ryan Gomes F Minnesota- 17 points, 15 rebounds
Gerald Wallace F Charlotte - 36 points, 8 rebounds, 2 threes, 4 steals, great all around game (16-22 at the foul line though)
Samuel Dalembert C Philly - 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 blocks, great cheap source of blocks/boards
Chris Kaman C LAC - 16 points, 16 rebounds, 5 blocks, has to be the #1 player populating top fantasy teams
12/30 - Key pickup this week- Jeff Green, Forward - Seattle. The fifth overall selection in the 2007 draft, the pick Seattle acquired in the Ray Allen trade, has taken over the starting small forward spot from the stopgap, Damien Wilkins. This will pair the two exciting rookies Kevin Durant and Jeff Green in the starting lineup together for the foreseeable future, which could be at least the next 3 years. Their skills complement each other very well. Sam Presti had this in mind when he made the deal for Green as he sees two 6'9" players with skills that mesh together on both ends of the floor. Durant can be the Michael Jordan to Green's Scottie Pippen (obviously not on that level). I see Green putting up solid numbers right away. Something like 15 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block/steal and solid percentages, but very few 3's and high turnovers. Jump on him now, he will be a solid player very soon.
12/28 - Who was able to see the game between the Magic and the Heat? I want to know how Dwayne Wade was able to go 16 for 21 from the floor? He was also 16 for 23 from the free throw line. Can't be a common thing to make 16 shots from the floor and 16 shots from the free throw line and shoot a better percentage on two pointers than on ones. If anyone out there watched the game, shoot me an email with a description of the action. Dwight Howard was a beast in this game also with 21 rebounds.
Also an interesting result in Toronto where the Raptors beat the Spurs who played with everyone but Ginobli. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan combined for 12 turnovers and the team shot 31% for the game. This is a team that basically decides when to turn it on and when to cruise through the long season. This may be one of those games, but Duncan played over 40 minutes, which doesn't look like a give away game to me.
Nazr Mohammad looks like a decent pick up if you have space. He has had double digit rebounds in four straight games.
12/27 - It is going to be fun watching two things develop this year that were both on display tonight. The resurgence of the Celtics with Garnett, Allen and Pierce leading the way. They are so improved on defense along with having the luxury of 3 go-to guys, the Celtics could challenge the 70 win plateau and not really be challenged until they meet the Pistons in the conference finals. Health is the only possible thing that could derail this train. They don't have much depth behind the big three after dealing 7 guys away to get Garnett and Allen. The other great thing that is on the way is the maturation of Kevin Durant. He was obviously fired up to play against the Celtics tonight at home. He was more aggressive than usual (not on the boards yet), and it showed in his attitude and energy. If he could start off shooting a better % that would help Seattle not fall behind early so often which is their M.O. right now. Once he gets a bit stronger and develops more feel finishing his graceful runners, he will be able to score at will. He showed up well tonight against Boston and gives Seattle a taste of what they will be missing when Durant is stolen away to Oklahoma City.
12/27 - Chris Paul is becoming one of the top 5 or 6 players in basketball. Tonight he put up 40 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, 5 threes and a single turnover. All while shooting .680 from the field and 1.000 from the line. This obviously contributed directly to the 116-98 victory over Memphis. Like I mentioned about the Christmas day games, Chris Paul has added the three point shot to his arsenal and it has made him almost unstoppable. If you have to close out hard on an outside shooter, it makes it much easier for that player to go by the defense on the way to the basket. Someone with Chris Paul's natural speed and quickness is going to become quite the force when adding range to his jump shot. I am looking forward to what the rest of this season has in store for Paul. Will he enter the conversation with Kobe, Lebron, KG, and Wade as the elite players in the NBA.
Another big game tonight was the triple double put up by Marcus Camby. Call it the Manute Bol special as it consisted of 10 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks. Camby has been a top contributor for the last few years with injuries being the only thing holding him back from fantasy stardom. More to come..
12/26 - Interesting Christmas day of basketball. Three interesting matchups for different reasons. First, Lebron vs DWade. I have a hard time not feeling sorry for Wade. Miami is obviously struggling and he has to work much harder for everything he gets than Lebron does. Part of this is due to Lebron's size, he can get some post ups and jumpers over guys that Wade just can't get. The other thing that Wade obviously needs to work on is his range. There is no reason he should not be a 40% 3 point shooter. This would open up things for him greatly. Guys would have to close out on him harder and make it easier to go by them and get to the rim which is his favorite thing to do. Chris Paul is a good example of a guy who has worked on his range and this season is making more than a 3 per game. If Wade got to this level, he would be much more lethal. Lebron was his usual solid self on national TV and his supporting cast, specifically Gibson and Gooden looked very good. And who doesn't like Varejao? In the second game, the most entertaining team to watch, Phoenix, got beat by Kobe and the surprise development of Andrew Bynum. Kobe is a great player, but it was clear to me that what makes them a better team is having Lamar Odom direct the offense from the high post and Bynum being a presence both on the block on offense and being a shot blocker on defense. His development is going to keep Kobe in LA and give the Lakers a chance at serious improvement this year. I didn't see it coming after Kobe was so critical of him over the summer, I thought the kid would wilt under the scrutiny, kudos to him for stepping up and letting Kobe know he is not alone. On the Suns side, they just have a HUGE hole in the middle of their defense. They miss Kurt Thomas more than they thought they would. Amare just isn't a presence in the middle. How can a guy as athletic as he is only average 8 or 9 boards a game? He should be a beast on the defensive glass and be up around 11 boards consistently. That would help. The final game was supposed to be Oden vs Durant, but due to the season ending injury to Oden, it was Roy vs Durant and their youth showed. Both guys struggled with their shots, probably due to pressing for the national tv audience, but in the second half, both got going. I actually coached against Brandon Roy when he was a high school player in Seattle, and I honestly did not see him becoming the player he is today. He was a good high school player, but not overly athletic and not a lights out shooter. Obviously the fact that he stayed all four years at the University of Washington allowed his great overall game to develop and now he is as solid as they come, no real weakness. And he is a gamer. The best sequence of the day was one where the Blazers went on a run, had the lead up to 13, the crowd was into the game and the Blazers were looking to put the game away. Martell Webster launched a 3 that would have been a dagger, but it missed and here comes Brandon Roy, to save the ball from going out of bounds on the long rebound, saving it to Steve Blake, stepping back into the court, getting a return pass from Blake and nailing the 3 himself. Hustle, great shot, money time. Durant continues to be a one dimensional player. They talked during the broadcast about how much pride he takes in his defense, but I don't see it. He gives ZERO effort at rebounding even though the Sonics are seriously outmatched inside every game. He doesn't know how to be a backside defender giving help and he loses his own guy on screens constantly, never fighting through. I guess if he blocks a couple of shots a game, he considers that a defensive victory, not me. He really needs to play with a lead guy that can take the scoring burden off of him and stay on him to rebound and be active on D. Ok, that is good, until tomorrow....
12/23 - I have specific back up for why you don't play a lesser player in weekly lineup basketball leagues just because they have more games than a quality player. I played Shane Battier instead of Kevin Durant this week because Battier had 4 games and Durant had only 2. Battier did hit 10 3 pointers and had 7 blocks, but Durant had 6 3's in his 2 games and blocks is not one of the categories that I have a real chance to win anyway. So in exchange for the 4 extra 3's, I got a 357 FG% and 250 FT% which cost me both of those categories. Here is a cardinal rule for fantasy basketball, guard your % categories with the most attention. DO NOT play anyone who will torpedo these categories.
12/20 - GUEST BLOGGER on Sonics/Hornets Game- Dbuk - I was not impressed with the way we played last night - the first half was like our last 3 on 3 game this spring - really rough & aggressive (but not in a basketball sort of way). Then the rest of it, it just seemed like they didn't want to be playing last night. Durant played here and there, but I wasn't as blown away by his skills as I thought I might be - with the understanding that he's still a rookie, he didn't have the look of confidence that I would have expected.
12/20 - The NBA only has two games on tonight, I wish they would space them out more. Every team but 2 played last night and tonight only 6 play, anyone know why? Shane Battier is the only guy I have playing tonight, pretty boring day in basketball. But this game will tell me if it was smart to play him over Kevin Durant.
12/19 - I have Chris Paul and Steve Nash on my fantasy basketball squad, it is ridiculous. They had 35 assists combined tonight. Along with thier high FG and FT % for PG's I have a huge advantage in 3 categories. Of course, I have no big men to speak of so I basically punt rebounds and blocks every week along with turnovers. I have filled the rest of my 10 man lineup with guys that are good at the % categories, shoot 3's and steal the ball. This gives me my 5 category focus and in a 9 category league that should allow me to win 5-4 as much as possible. Once in a while I can sneak out a win in total points as well.
12/19 - I made the cardinal mistake of playing a player with 4 games over a player with 2 this week simply on that game difference. Shane Battier is in my lineup instead of Kevin Durant and he is stinking up the joint already. Once the first game is over and you don't have 1/2 of what the main guy would give you in one game it was a mistake.
12/19 - I am enjoying Kirk Hinrich. His owner dropped him after his slow start and I picked him right up. A triple double later, along with a string of solid games and I have a bonus add on to my team.
By the way, the Sonics, Heat, Grizzlies and Timberwolves are all shooting for the worst records so they have a shot at the two best college players this year, Michael Beasly and Derrick Rose. I hope the Sonics get Rose, he is a better compliment to Durant than another scoring forward in Beasley.
2/28/08 - Here is a good tip, DO NOT rely on rookies in fantasy basketball. For one, they are going to be inconsistent, and two once they hit the halfway point in the season they become almost useless. The college season is 35-40 games long, once the all star break is over, rookies are running on fumes. I have Kevin Durant, Al Horford, and Jeff Green on my roster. They have all been incosistent this entire season with Durant shooting like garbage most of the time, Horford looking like a blinking light on one game totally off the next and Jeff Green looking like a total bust as the only remaining piece the Sonics received for Ray Allen. I knew going in that Durant would not shoot a high percentage, but he has been in the 20's half the time (4-17 last night, yikes!). I really thought Horford would be consistent at least with rebounds and blocks and he has not been at all. In the last 4 weeks, I have alternated playing him and benching him and when I played him he stunk, and when I benched him he was awesome (loved seeing his 14 points and 14 boards last night on my bench).
I have also been watching the updates on Caron Butler on a daily basis and finally today it was revealed that he has a tear in the hip labrum which sounds pretty bad. I may not get him back before the end of the season, which will likely sink my ship. I really need his assists and steals at the SF position as well as the solid numbers everywhere else. I have been plugging in Josh Childress and Al Thorton (another rookie) in his place, but I have been losing steals and assists without him. I have been looking at picking up Mike Conley who has SG eligibility to replace the assists and steals and moving Pierce to SF, but this will weaken me in FG%, Points and Turnovers compared to Childress and Thorton. I don't really have a good solution for this loss, but you never know.
2/23/08 - My trade of Steve Nash for Caron Butler is not working out so well. Butler has been injured for all of February and by trading Nash, I gave up my one sure advantage in Assists. Obviously I could not forsee the injury situation, but by attempting to flatten out my stat coverage (Butler is better in points, rebounds, steals and turnovers) I gave up my big advantage in assists and FG% with Nash and now I am fighting it out in some of these categories every week which has made my team more inconsistent than it was before. Hard to fully evaluate this deal with Butler hurt, but will be interesting once he comes back if my team becomes more successful.
Could the Sonics go any lower? I know they beat Portland last night, but the Blazers are a terrible road team for whatever reason. Seattle has basically 3 players that would be a part of a truly successful team. Durant and Green are rookies that should continue to develop and Nick Collison is a great big man off the bench for any team. Other than that, this roster is completely devoid of useful parts. Watson, Wilcox, Ridnour, and the triumverate of crappy centers (Petro, Swift, Sene) are all basically spare parts. It is obvious that this ownership group is clearing the decks for a fresh start once they move the team to Oklahoma City. I can see them leaving Seattle with Durant, Green and $40M of cap space to start over. Sam Presti has done as a good job of setting the team up for a rebuilding effort if that is what he has been directed to do, but doesn't do much for the fans of the team now. Hard to watch and if it wasn't for the fact that Durant is so interesting to watch develop, there would be no reason to at all.
2/18/08 - The all-star game is a joke. Nobody is trying at all on defense, the passing is riduculous and it often breaks down into a lob fest in an attempt to get the "alley-oop" of the day. Stupid and not good for basketball overall. I don't want kids that I will be coaching to see that showboating crap from the best players in the world, I want to see teamwork, great passing, great shooting and some defense, is that really too much to ask? No wonder our olympic teams get their butts kicked, our stars think a fancy between the legs dribble, crossover, step back 22 footer, one on five is a good shot. Blach!
OK, enough about that. Now back to fantasy...
It has been a few weeks since I blogged on this subject and it has honestly been due to the doldrums of the worst sports month of the year, the month in between football and baseball. I had an interesting last fantasy week prior to the all star break. It was a short week, so most every team had 2 games ( a few only had 1) and I was going against a team with Dwight Howard and Marcus Camby. I have played this team once before and with these two guys, I have no chance to win rebounds or blocks. So in an effort to try to win the other categories, and sacrifice boards and blocks, I benched Tyson Chandler and Al Horford and replace them with a surging Andrea Bargnani along with Sam Cassell (I shifted guys down a position where I had position flexibility). I figured with the two guys I played, I would have more 3's, assists, points and steals and because Horford has been shooting poorly, my FG% might be even. I thought I had a good chance to win 6-3 or 5-4. Well as the week went on it was obvious I made a mistake and not for the obvious reasons. Horford and Chandler combined for 62 rebounds in their 4 games, but I would have still lost rebounds by 10 due in part to the 24 rebound game that Howard put up. So I calculated that correctly as well as blocks, which I lost 18-4 (Camby had a 7 block game). I knew I was going to lose those categories, but I didn't plan on losing steals, turnovers and my hope for FG% didn't work out either. Chander would have made the difference in steals and FG% as I lost steals by 1 and FG% by .005 and he had a 3 steal game and a solid FG% for the week, while Bargnani did make 3 from beyond the arc, he only had 1 steal and shot 40%. I made a calculated gamble and it didn't pay off, even though the reason I did it was sound and half of it worked out as I thought it would. Here is the lesson learned, play your best players, regardless of the matchup problems and hope that it works out. Trying to matchup by category is never going to work out as you think.
2/7/08 - What is the deal with so many players in the NBA missing games with the Flu? I don't know if I am just noticing it more this year or if there actually is some epidemic here, but in the last two weeks I have missed substantial time from guys like Corey Magettee, Tyson Chandler, Andrei Kirilenko, all for the flu. You would think that elite athletes would take care of themselves as much as possible and that the teams would go to great lenghts to avoid these types of things. Have the ever heard of Vitamin C????
Fun game in Phoenix last night too. How do you not enjoy a 132-130 double OT game? With the news of the Shaq/Marion trade there was probably even more focus on this game to start with. Then the actual fun started with being able to watch the two best point guards in the game go at it. Chris Paul and Steve Nash both had great games (if you ignore the 10 turnovers for Nash, yuck!). Boris Diaw was the beneficiary of the Marion trade last night playing 36 minutes and scoring an economical 22 points. I think that during the regular season, Shaq will have a limited role and that Diaw will continue to put up big numbers. Think back to two seasons ago when Stoudamire was out, Diaw was awesome and I think he could get back to that with an increased role. The Shaq effect won't really be seen until the playoffs when the Suns need some toughness on D and a presence in the half court offense. It is hard to picture Shaq running with the Suns, but they may be able to specialize his role enough that he can be the shot blocker/rebounder to ignite the break, then only get involved in the offense when they get slowed down. This is all pending his health status, he seriously needs to get in shape now. As for Marion, he will opt out and sign with Memphis or Toronto most likely. I still don't understand his problem, guess some athletes are so selfish that they cannot see the greatness of thier situation until they are gone. Ask Joe Johnson how it is to be a big fish in a small pond Shawn! Idiot.
1/18/08 - Quick thought... I traded Steve Nash for Caron Butler.... It is hard to judge a trade in one week, but I am losing the deal so far. Nash has had a 35 point game and a 20 assist game since the trade was complete. And Butler has not been shooting well since the deal and has not made a single three during that time either. I had assists to give, but not FG % and 3PM so if Butler doesn't come back to his season averages in these areas, I am in trouble with this deal.
1/14/08 - Been a few days since I watched any hoops. NFL playoffs took center stage over the weekend. Back into it now with a few games the last couple of days. Observations....
First, Josh Childress is very underappreciated. He has shot over 60 percent the last two weeks and simply does not hurt your fantasy team. I plug him in at guard or forward depending on my matchups and watch his percentages, decent scoring and rebounding go along with a steal here and a block there for some quality contributions. If he is free pick him up, if you own him, play him.
Second, I recently traded Steve Nash for Caron Butler in a simple one for one deal. I had Chris Paul and Steve Nash, and I was winning assists by so much every week, having both was a bit of a waste. I needed more points and steals, while not giving up any in the percentage categories. Butler fits perfectly.
Third, I am watching Kevin Durant go up against Kobe Bryant and Kobe is really kicking his tail. Rookie is shooting terribly against the Lakers and he took a terrible shot at the end of regulation. But that was on the possession after he tied up the game with an icy three ball, so take the good with the bad. Once again I must hit on his one weak spot, rebounding. He is 6'10" and has one rebound tonight. He doesn't even try to rebound. I have no idea what the coaches say to him, but it must be something like, "Kevin, stay as far away from the ball as possible, we don't want you getting hurt in a rebound scrum". This needs to change.
Fourth, it looks like I was wrong about Jeff Green. I think he still belongs in a reserve role. Playing along side Durant, he has looked more hesitant and takes wild shot after wild shot. And the strength of his game, rebounding and defense has not been as steady either. This needs to be done asap, before he really loses his confidence.
1/8/08 - I would like to examine for a minute the benefit of having a player in a position, power forward for example, who doesn't bring the typical skills for that position, but adds something that most other players don't. This week I had the lineup choice between Sean Williams (rookie PF for New Jersey) or Andres Nocioni (SF/PF for Chicago starting for Luol Deng). Sean Williams brings the typical PF skill set to the position, strong FG%, Rebounds and Blocks. Nocioni brings the very unique skill of 3 point shooting to the PF position. Thier points, assists, steals and turnovers are very similar. So is it more important to stick with the standard categories for the position or try to get something unique? Let's look at how this should play out: Assume both players play 3 games
Williams -
FG% 55 FT% 65 3's 0 Pts 21 Rebs 16 Asst 2 Stl 2 Blk 6 TO 4
Nocioni
FG% 40 FT% 70 3's 6 Pts 40 Rebs 15 Asst 4 Stl 2 Blk 2 TO 6
So the difference is really FG% and Blks compared to 3 pointers. So which direction should you go? Williams may be a special case here with his extra high block numbers, but Nocioni is equally as talented behind the three point line. The extra 3's could very likely win you that category, as could the extra 4 blocks, so that could be a wash. My opinion is that FG% is the most important stat to protect, especially at the positions that should typically provide solid numbers there. Assume you have 4 guards that all shoot under 45%, if you add a "big" that does as well, it will be very hard to get your shooting above that level for the week. Typically in my experience 47% or higher is usually the winning number (you can win lower but it is lucky). I would much prefer to take the boring, typical stats of the PF position than go for the extra 3's I could get from a player like Nocioni. Now if you have a couple of guards like Steve Nash and Tony Parker who shoot a high percentage and together may not provide the three point shooting you need, maybe you consider this, but I would encourage you to get your 3's from the guards and forwards and get your %'s, rebounds and blocks from your big guys.
1/4/08 - I am enjoying the season, maybe the final season, of Sonics basketball. This is due entirely to the arrival of Kevin Durant. He alone has made the Sonics interesting to watch. Here is some background information on his season so far.
Durant has scored in double figures in all but 3 games that he has played (and one of those he left in the first quarter with an injured finger)
Durant is averaging 20 points per game on 17 shots, while shooting 41% from the field and 86% from the line. A good comparable is Paul Pierce, averaging 21 points per game on 15.5 shots.
Durant is one of 7 or 8 players in the league averaging 1 block, 1 steal and 1 3pointer per game.
Now these facts all support the hype that he had coming out of college, but it does not completely tell the story about how he is doing it. He has been forced to be the #1 option on a team devoid of stars, with no real #2 scoring threat. He has done it playing the off guard position, which he has never played before. He is doing it without a point guard to set him up for easy looks.
Durant has gotten most of his opportunities in three ways, taking a man off the dribble, shooting jump shots which have usually been contested, and getting out on the break. His versatility in how he can score is amazing. He shows no hesitation in his shot selection and can get by quicker defenders with his long stride and finish with either hand. Once he gains some strength, the NBA 3 pointer will get easier and he will be able to hold his own around the rim with more authority. His negatives have been limited to rebounding and defense. His defense has been limited to the occasional pilfering of a passing lane and the helpside block and he has been almost non-existent on the boards as well.
On Thursday night against Phoenix, the Sonics, behind 12 4th quarter points from Durant, cut the Suns lead to 4 with 2 minutes remaining. This is "winning" time and on consecutive possessions, Durant turned the ball over. On both occasions, he looked a bit weak and tired, probably from carrying his team back into the game. As he matures, this will not happen and he will likely start taking over games the way the great scorers do. I can't wait for the moments like this to arrive, just hope it will be in Seattle and not on the NBA ticket live via Oklahoma....
1/2/08 - Today has been a frustrating day for my fantasy basketball team. I have built my team with a concentration on FG%, FT%, 3's, Assists and Steals. I should have an advantage in these 5 categories most weeks and be solid enough to win points/turnovers once in a while (I never win rebounds or blocks). But even the best laid plans can go awry. A team that has 3 90% FT shooters, 4 guys at 80% and 3 guys at 65% is shooting 40% from the line so far this week. A team with 6 guys averaging 1 3/game or more has 6 3's total. Put that together with my opponent's 55% from the field and 3 of my core categories are on the losing end. I guess everyone will have weeks like this from time to time, doesn't make it any less frustrating.
1/1/08 - The NBA is taking the day off on New Year's to make way for the college football bonanza, but here are a few thoughts on the Monday games. Fantasy highlights by players under the radar:
Jamario Moon F Toronto- 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and 2 steals, great hustle contribution.
Jose Calderon PG Toronto- 17 points, 12 assists, doing great in the absence of TJ Ford
Ryan Gomes F Minnesota- 17 points, 15 rebounds
Gerald Wallace F Charlotte - 36 points, 8 rebounds, 2 threes, 4 steals, great all around game (16-22 at the foul line though)
Samuel Dalembert C Philly - 10 points, 7 rebounds, 6 blocks, great cheap source of blocks/boards
Chris Kaman C LAC - 16 points, 16 rebounds, 5 blocks, has to be the #1 player populating top fantasy teams
12/30 - Key pickup this week- Jeff Green, Forward - Seattle. The fifth overall selection in the 2007 draft, the pick Seattle acquired in the Ray Allen trade, has taken over the starting small forward spot from the stopgap, Damien Wilkins. This will pair the two exciting rookies Kevin Durant and Jeff Green in the starting lineup together for the foreseeable future, which could be at least the next 3 years. Their skills complement each other very well. Sam Presti had this in mind when he made the deal for Green as he sees two 6'9" players with skills that mesh together on both ends of the floor. Durant can be the Michael Jordan to Green's Scottie Pippen (obviously not on that level). I see Green putting up solid numbers right away. Something like 15 points, 9 rebounds, 1 block/steal and solid percentages, but very few 3's and high turnovers. Jump on him now, he will be a solid player very soon.
12/28 - Who was able to see the game between the Magic and the Heat? I want to know how Dwayne Wade was able to go 16 for 21 from the floor? He was also 16 for 23 from the free throw line. Can't be a common thing to make 16 shots from the floor and 16 shots from the free throw line and shoot a better percentage on two pointers than on ones. If anyone out there watched the game, shoot me an email with a description of the action. Dwight Howard was a beast in this game also with 21 rebounds.
Also an interesting result in Toronto where the Raptors beat the Spurs who played with everyone but Ginobli. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan combined for 12 turnovers and the team shot 31% for the game. This is a team that basically decides when to turn it on and when to cruise through the long season. This may be one of those games, but Duncan played over 40 minutes, which doesn't look like a give away game to me.
Nazr Mohammad looks like a decent pick up if you have space. He has had double digit rebounds in four straight games.
12/27 - It is going to be fun watching two things develop this year that were both on display tonight. The resurgence of the Celtics with Garnett, Allen and Pierce leading the way. They are so improved on defense along with having the luxury of 3 go-to guys, the Celtics could challenge the 70 win plateau and not really be challenged until they meet the Pistons in the conference finals. Health is the only possible thing that could derail this train. They don't have much depth behind the big three after dealing 7 guys away to get Garnett and Allen. The other great thing that is on the way is the maturation of Kevin Durant. He was obviously fired up to play against the Celtics tonight at home. He was more aggressive than usual (not on the boards yet), and it showed in his attitude and energy. If he could start off shooting a better % that would help Seattle not fall behind early so often which is their M.O. right now. Once he gets a bit stronger and develops more feel finishing his graceful runners, he will be able to score at will. He showed up well tonight against Boston and gives Seattle a taste of what they will be missing when Durant is stolen away to Oklahoma City.
12/27 - Chris Paul is becoming one of the top 5 or 6 players in basketball. Tonight he put up 40 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, 5 threes and a single turnover. All while shooting .680 from the field and 1.000 from the line. This obviously contributed directly to the 116-98 victory over Memphis. Like I mentioned about the Christmas day games, Chris Paul has added the three point shot to his arsenal and it has made him almost unstoppable. If you have to close out hard on an outside shooter, it makes it much easier for that player to go by the defense on the way to the basket. Someone with Chris Paul's natural speed and quickness is going to become quite the force when adding range to his jump shot. I am looking forward to what the rest of this season has in store for Paul. Will he enter the conversation with Kobe, Lebron, KG, and Wade as the elite players in the NBA.
Another big game tonight was the triple double put up by Marcus Camby. Call it the Manute Bol special as it consisted of 10 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks. Camby has been a top contributor for the last few years with injuries being the only thing holding him back from fantasy stardom. More to come..
12/26 - Interesting Christmas day of basketball. Three interesting matchups for different reasons. First, Lebron vs DWade. I have a hard time not feeling sorry for Wade. Miami is obviously struggling and he has to work much harder for everything he gets than Lebron does. Part of this is due to Lebron's size, he can get some post ups and jumpers over guys that Wade just can't get. The other thing that Wade obviously needs to work on is his range. There is no reason he should not be a 40% 3 point shooter. This would open up things for him greatly. Guys would have to close out on him harder and make it easier to go by them and get to the rim which is his favorite thing to do. Chris Paul is a good example of a guy who has worked on his range and this season is making more than a 3 per game. If Wade got to this level, he would be much more lethal. Lebron was his usual solid self on national TV and his supporting cast, specifically Gibson and Gooden looked very good. And who doesn't like Varejao? In the second game, the most entertaining team to watch, Phoenix, got beat by Kobe and the surprise development of Andrew Bynum. Kobe is a great player, but it was clear to me that what makes them a better team is having Lamar Odom direct the offense from the high post and Bynum being a presence both on the block on offense and being a shot blocker on defense. His development is going to keep Kobe in LA and give the Lakers a chance at serious improvement this year. I didn't see it coming after Kobe was so critical of him over the summer, I thought the kid would wilt under the scrutiny, kudos to him for stepping up and letting Kobe know he is not alone. On the Suns side, they just have a HUGE hole in the middle of their defense. They miss Kurt Thomas more than they thought they would. Amare just isn't a presence in the middle. How can a guy as athletic as he is only average 8 or 9 boards a game? He should be a beast on the defensive glass and be up around 11 boards consistently. That would help. The final game was supposed to be Oden vs Durant, but due to the season ending injury to Oden, it was Roy vs Durant and their youth showed. Both guys struggled with their shots, probably due to pressing for the national tv audience, but in the second half, both got going. I actually coached against Brandon Roy when he was a high school player in Seattle, and I honestly did not see him becoming the player he is today. He was a good high school player, but not overly athletic and not a lights out shooter. Obviously the fact that he stayed all four years at the University of Washington allowed his great overall game to develop and now he is as solid as they come, no real weakness. And he is a gamer. The best sequence of the day was one where the Blazers went on a run, had the lead up to 13, the crowd was into the game and the Blazers were looking to put the game away. Martell Webster launched a 3 that would have been a dagger, but it missed and here comes Brandon Roy, to save the ball from going out of bounds on the long rebound, saving it to Steve Blake, stepping back into the court, getting a return pass from Blake and nailing the 3 himself. Hustle, great shot, money time. Durant continues to be a one dimensional player. They talked during the broadcast about how much pride he takes in his defense, but I don't see it. He gives ZERO effort at rebounding even though the Sonics are seriously outmatched inside every game. He doesn't know how to be a backside defender giving help and he loses his own guy on screens constantly, never fighting through. I guess if he blocks a couple of shots a game, he considers that a defensive victory, not me. He really needs to play with a lead guy that can take the scoring burden off of him and stay on him to rebound and be active on D. Ok, that is good, until tomorrow....
12/23 - I have specific back up for why you don't play a lesser player in weekly lineup basketball leagues just because they have more games than a quality player. I played Shane Battier instead of Kevin Durant this week because Battier had 4 games and Durant had only 2. Battier did hit 10 3 pointers and had 7 blocks, but Durant had 6 3's in his 2 games and blocks is not one of the categories that I have a real chance to win anyway. So in exchange for the 4 extra 3's, I got a 357 FG% and 250 FT% which cost me both of those categories. Here is a cardinal rule for fantasy basketball, guard your % categories with the most attention. DO NOT play anyone who will torpedo these categories.
12/20 - GUEST BLOGGER on Sonics/Hornets Game- Dbuk - I was not impressed with the way we played last night - the first half was like our last 3 on 3 game this spring - really rough & aggressive (but not in a basketball sort of way). Then the rest of it, it just seemed like they didn't want to be playing last night. Durant played here and there, but I wasn't as blown away by his skills as I thought I might be - with the understanding that he's still a rookie, he didn't have the look of confidence that I would have expected.
12/20 - The NBA only has two games on tonight, I wish they would space them out more. Every team but 2 played last night and tonight only 6 play, anyone know why? Shane Battier is the only guy I have playing tonight, pretty boring day in basketball. But this game will tell me if it was smart to play him over Kevin Durant.
12/19 - I have Chris Paul and Steve Nash on my fantasy basketball squad, it is ridiculous. They had 35 assists combined tonight. Along with thier high FG and FT % for PG's I have a huge advantage in 3 categories. Of course, I have no big men to speak of so I basically punt rebounds and blocks every week along with turnovers. I have filled the rest of my 10 man lineup with guys that are good at the % categories, shoot 3's and steal the ball. This gives me my 5 category focus and in a 9 category league that should allow me to win 5-4 as much as possible. Once in a while I can sneak out a win in total points as well.
12/19 - I made the cardinal mistake of playing a player with 4 games over a player with 2 this week simply on that game difference. Shane Battier is in my lineup instead of Kevin Durant and he is stinking up the joint already. Once the first game is over and you don't have 1/2 of what the main guy would give you in one game it was a mistake.
12/19 - I am enjoying Kirk Hinrich. His owner dropped him after his slow start and I picked him right up. A triple double later, along with a string of solid games and I have a bonus add on to my team.
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